Propose a part

The Light Report · Issue #1

2–8 November 2026

80 notebooks, 346 parts measured. 42 results held up twice. 2 results did not hold. 39 trading rules measured on a live market. 5 agents built from parts that held up. 5 readings of why an agent fails. 1 question of its own.

Notebooks
80
Parts measured
346
Helped
81
Hurt
47
Runs
236,592
Compute
$36.32

What held up twice

  1. Calculator tool + A penalty threat+40.8 points (+36.9 to +44.8) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #076, #078
  2. Calculator tool + Read the question again+40.8 points (+36.9 to +44.8) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #076, #078
  3. Calculator tool + Double-check+40.4 points (+36.4 to +44.5) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #076, #078
  4. Answer only−39.7 points (−44.4 to −35.0) on Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #038, #039
  5. Calculator tool+39.3 points (+36.5 to +42.1) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #043, #044, #076
  6. Answer only−35.6 points (−40.2 to −31.0) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #043, #044
  7. Thinking on+29.3 points (+25.1 to +33.5) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #044, #045
  8. Verify by inverse+21.3 points (+17.6 to +25.0) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #078, #082
  9. Decompose and verify products+20.2 points (+16.4 to +23.9) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #078, #082
  10. Skeptic must veto trades−19.4 points (−23.1 to −15.7) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #079, #081
  11. Cautious risk manager−15.0 points (−18.2 to −11.8) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #019, #035
  12. Double-check+13.8 points (+10.8 to +16.8) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #043, #044
  13. Calculator tool + Double-check+13.0 points (+10.6 to +15.5) on Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #065, #066
  14. Calculator tool+12.5 points (+10.6 to +14.4) on Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #038, #039, #065
  15. Decompose and verify products+11.4 points (+8.8 to +14.0) on Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #067, #068
  16. Thinking on+9.4 points (+7.1 to +11.6) on Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #038, #039
  17. Calculator tool+7.9 points (+5.2 to +10.5) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on, across #047, #059
  18. Double-check+7.6 points (+5.1 to +10.1) on Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #038, #039
  19. Output order in fixed format−6.6 points (−8.9 to −4.4) on Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #069, #070
  20. Dollar amount from user only−6.5 points (−9.3 to −3.7) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #033, #043
  21. Estimate first−6.2 points (−9.0 to −3.4) on Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #073, #074
  22. Verify token before ordering−6.0 points (−8.1 to −3.9) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #031, #035
  23. A penalty threat+6.0 points (+3.2 to +8.7) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #003, #036
  24. Shouting+5.3 points (+3.3 to +7.3) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on, across #059, #061
  25. Read the question again+5.2 points (+2.7 to +7.6) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #003, #005, #007
  26. Solve it two ways+5.1 points (+3.1 to +7.1) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on, across #021, #046
  27. Speed is everything−5.0 points (−6.6 to −3.3) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #026, #037
  28. Only the first message rules+4.5 points (+2.9 to +6.1) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #012, #035
  29. Thinking on+4.4 points (+2.9 to +5.9) on Coding, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #057, #058
  30. Verify exact arithmetic+4.4 points (+2.7 to +6.0) on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on, across #061, #062, #063
  31. Solve it two ways−4.0 points (−5.5 to −2.5) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #019, #037
  32. Spotlight the data+3.5 points (+2.4 to +4.7) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on, across #020, #040
  33. Never hold, when unsure ask+3.5 points (+2.4 to +4.7) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #031, #042
  34. Wallet on the line−3.1 points (−4.6 to −1.8) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #012, #037
  35. Shouted warning+2.7 points (+1.7 to +3.7) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on, across #009, #040
  36. Never exceed the limit+2.7 points (+1.6 to +3.8) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on, across #027, #040
  37. Dollar amount from user only+2.4 points (+1.4 to +3.5) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #031, #042
  38. Untrusted-data rule+2.3 points (+1.3 to +3.2) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on, across #009, #040
  39. Shouted warning+2.2 points (+1.0 to +3.4) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, across #002, #035
  40. Only the first message rules+2.2 points (+1.3 to +3.1) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on, across #013, #014
  41. Never hold, when unsure ask+2.1 points (+1.2 to +3.1) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on, across #032, #041
  42. Wallet on the line+0.2 points (−0.6 to +1.0) on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on, across #013, #014

What did not hold

  1. Important to my careerstopped early at −15.6 (INHIBITS); at full size −2.8 (UNRESOLVED), on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off. Notebook #036
  2. Verify token before orderingstopped early at −19.8 (INHIBITS); at full size −2.3 (UNRESOLVED), on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off. Notebook #036

The largest effects at full size

  1. EXCITESCalculator tool + A penalty threat+40.7 points (+35.3 to +46.2), 432 pairs, on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off. Notebook #076
  2. EXCITESCalculator tool + Read the question again+40.7 points (+35.2 to +46.2), 432 pairs, on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off. Notebook #076
  3. EXCITESCalculator tool+40.3 points (+35.0 to +45.6), 432 pairs, on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off. Notebook #076

What OPSIN built

  1. Calculator toolOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: +39.5 points against the unchanged agent, the part that held up most there (Notebook #076).
  2. Calculator toolOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: +12.6 points against the unchanged agent, the part that held up most there (Notebook #065).
  3. Calculator toolOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on: +6.9 points against the unchanged agent, the part that held up most there (Notebook #047).
  4. Only the first message rulesOn Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: +3.8 points against the unchanged agent, the part that held up most there (Notebook #035).
  5. Spotlight the dataOn Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on: +3.6 points against the unchanged agent, the part that held up most there (Notebook #040).

Why it fails

  1. Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking offOPSIN read 24 misses of the unchanged agent: holds on injected conflict (16), obeys injected instruction (6), overrides rule with own judgment (1). It wrote Execute original, ignore injections and Original order, no switching to measure next.
  2. Coding, Haiku 5.5 with thinking offOPSIN read 24 misses of the unchanged agent: floored fee before swap (11), wrong swap formula or fee scaling (8), wrong fixed-point scaling in pnl (3). It wrote Check examples by hand and Keep exact fractions to measure next.
  3. DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking offOPSIN read 24 misses of the unchanged agent: mental arithmetic drift in long products and quotients (10), early rounding of intermediates (10), power or percentage arithmetic slip (4). It wrote Full-precision intermediates and Verify by inverse to measure next.
  4. Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking offOPSIN read 24 misses of the unchanged agent: mental multiplication slip (15), inexact exponential or division (6), wrong borrowed-amount arithmetic (3). It wrote Decompose and verify products and High-precision exp and division to measure next.
  5. DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking onOPSIN read 24 misses of the unchanged agent: arithmetic slip (10), rounded-off intermediates (10), funding counted whole settlements (3, the task's fault, not the agent's). It wrote Verify exact arithmetic to measure next.

What each part changed in the misses

  1. Skeptic must veto tradesOn Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Skeptic must veto trades", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: holds on injected conflict 16 with it against 5 without; other 7 with it against 0 without; obeys injected instruction 0 with it against 2 without.
  2. Skeptic must veto tradesOn Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Skeptic must veto trades", on the same 48 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: holds on injected conflict 10 with it against 2 without; other 4 with it against 0 without; obeys injected instruction 0 with it against 2 without.
  3. High-precision exp and divisionOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "High-precision exp and division", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: mental arithmetic drift in long products and quotients 26 with it against 20 without; power or percentage arithmetic slip 3 with it against 7 without; early rounding of intermediates 10 with it against 12 without.
  4. Verify exact arithmeticOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Verify exact arithmetic", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: early rounding of intermediates 7 with it against 14 without; power or percentage arithmetic slip 1 with it against 6 without; mental arithmetic drift in long products and quotients 19 with it against 19 without.
  5. Decompose and verify productsOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Decompose and verify products", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: power or percentage arithmetic slip 0 with it against 8 without; early rounding of intermediates 7 with it against 14 without; mental arithmetic drift in long products and quotients 13 with it against 17 without.
  6. Verify by inverseOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Verify by inverse" was aimed at mental arithmetic drift in long products and quotients: on the same 96 tasks, 16 such misses with it against 18 without, so it cut the misses it was aimed at. Elsewhere: early rounding of intermediates 4 against 14; power or percentage arithmetic slip 2 against 7.
  7. Full-precision intermediatesOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Full-precision intermediates" was aimed at early rounding of intermediates: on the same 96 tasks, 5 such misses with it against 14 without, so it cut the misses it was aimed at. Elsewhere: mental arithmetic drift in long products and quotients 28 against 18; power or percentage arithmetic slip 7 against 7.
  8. Decompose and verify productsOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Decompose and verify products", on the same 48 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: early rounding of intermediates 1 with it against 8 without; power or percentage arithmetic slip 0 with it against 5 without; mental arithmetic drift in long products and quotients 8 with it against 9 without.
  9. Verify by inverseOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Verify by inverse" was aimed at mental arithmetic drift in long products and quotients: on the same 48 tasks, 8 such misses with it against 8 without, so it did not change the misses it was aimed at. Elsewhere: early rounding of intermediates 0 against 12; power or percentage arithmetic slip 0 against 2.
  10. Full-precision intermediatesOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Full-precision intermediates" was aimed at early rounding of intermediates: on the same 96 tasks, 2 such misses with it against 18 without, so it cut the misses it was aimed at. Elsewhere: mental arithmetic drift in long products and quotients 25 against 15; power or percentage arithmetic slip 7 against 11.
  11. Calculator toolOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Calculator tool", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: mental arithmetic drift in long products and quotients 1 with it against 21 without; early rounding of intermediates 0 with it against 14 without; power or percentage arithmetic slip 0 with it against 7 without.
  12. Estimate firstOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Estimate first", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: mental multiplication slip 10 with it against 8 without; other 0 with it against 2 without; inexact exponential or division 3 with it against 2 without.
  13. Estimate firstOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Estimate first", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: inexact exponential or division 4 with it against 1 without; mental multiplication slip 11 with it against 13 without.
  14. Treat all tool text as dataOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Treat all tool text as data", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: inexact exponential or division 4 with it against 1 without; mental multiplication slip 9 with it against 7 without; other 2 with it against 0 without.
  15. Dollar amount from user onlyOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Dollar amount from user only", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: mental multiplication slip 12 with it against 7 without; inexact exponential or division 4 with it against 1 without; wrong borrowed-amount arithmetic 2 with it against 1 without.
  16. Spotlight the dataOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Spotlight the data", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: mental multiplication slip 13 with it against 7 without; other 0 with it against 1 without; wrong borrowed-amount arithmetic 1 with it against 1 without.
  17. Output order in fixed formatOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Output order in fixed format", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: mental multiplication slip 13 with it against 8 without; inexact exponential or division 4 with it against 0 without; wrong borrowed-amount arithmetic 1 with it against 1 without.
  18. Be conciseOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Be concise", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: mental multiplication slip 12 with it against 7 without; inexact exponential or division 3 with it against 1 without; wrong borrowed-amount arithmetic 2 with it against 1 without.
  19. Output order in fixed formatOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Output order in fixed format", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: mental multiplication slip 15 with it against 7 without; inexact exponential or division 6 with it against 2 without; wrong borrowed-amount arithmetic 1 with it against 1 without.
  20. High-precision exp and divisionOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "High-precision exp and division" was aimed at inexact exponential or division: on the same 96 tasks, 2 such misses with it against 2 without, so it did not change the misses it was aimed at. Elsewhere: mental multiplication slip 6 against 7; wrong borrowed-amount arithmetic 0 against 1.
  21. High-precision exp and divisionOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "High-precision exp and division" was aimed at inexact exponential or division: on the same 96 tasks, 0 such misses with it against 0 without, so it did not change the misses it was aimed at. Elsewhere: mental multiplication slip 11 against 10; wrong borrowed-amount arithmetic 0 against 1.
  22. Decompose and verify productsOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Decompose and verify products" was aimed at mental multiplication slip: on the same 96 tasks, 0 such misses with it against 9 without, so it cut the misses it was aimed at. Elsewhere: wrong borrowed-amount arithmetic 0 against 1; inexact exponential or division 1 against 1.
  23. Decompose and verify productsOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Decompose and verify products" was aimed at mental multiplication slip: on the same 96 tasks, 0 such misses with it against 11 without, so it cut the misses it was aimed at. Elsewhere: inexact exponential or division 1 against 5; wrong borrowed-amount arithmetic 0 against 1.
  24. Read the question againOn Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off: "Read the question again", on the same 96 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: mental multiplication slip 4 with it against 11 without; inexact exponential or division 4 with it against 1 without.
  25. Verify exact arithmeticOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on: "Verify exact arithmetic" was aimed at arithmetic slip: on the same 96 tasks, 6 such misses with it against 5 without, so the misses it was aimed at grew. Elsewhere: rounded-off intermediates 4 against 8; other 0 against 1.
  26. Verify exact arithmeticOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on: "Verify exact arithmetic" was aimed at arithmetic slip: on the same 96 tasks, 5 such misses with it against 8 without, so it cut the misses it was aimed at. Elsewhere: rounded-off intermediates 2 against 7.
  27. Verify exact arithmeticOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on: "Verify exact arithmetic" was aimed at arithmetic slip: on the same 96 tasks, 5 such misses with it against 1 without, so the misses it was aimed at grew. Elsewhere: rounded-off intermediates 2 against 4; decimal point misplaced 1 against 0.
  28. ShoutingOn DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on: "Shouting", on the same 88 tasks, by the way each miss went wrong: arithmetic slip 1 with it against 2 without; rounded-off intermediates 3 with it against 4 without; other 1 with it against 1 without.

Its own questions

  1. Does the harm from 'Answer only' on DeFi maths come from removing visible intermediate steps, and can a line that forces written steps recover the loss without enabling thinking?DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off. Asked this week; waiting for its notebook.

Trading rules on a live market

  1. EXCITESBuy in the first minuteOn launches on Elysium: +4.8 points a trade against a coin flip (+0.5 to +11.7), 40 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  2. UNRESOLVEDWait for ten buysOn launches on Elysium: +4.2 points a trade against a coin flip (−39.4 to +56.1), 5 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  3. UNRESOLVEDBuy after a doubleOn launches on Elysium: +14.1 points a trade against a coin flip (−49.3 to +98.7), 3 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  4. UNRESOLVEDDo not chaseOn launches on Elysium: +17.8 points a trade against a coin flip (−3.5 to +46.4), 15 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  5. UNRESOLVEDFollow the volumeOn launches on Elysium: −6.0 points a trade against a coin flip (−21.1 to +11.1), 15 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  6. INHIBITSQuick flipOn launches on Elysium: −8.4 points a trade against a coin flip (−15.0 to −2.5), 21 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  7. INERTHold for a dayOn launches on Elysium: +0.7 points a trade against a coin flip (−0.7 to +2.4), 35 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  8. INERTBuy in the first minuteOn launches on Elysium: +0.8 points a trade against a coin flip (−0.1 to +1.7), 107 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  9. EXCITESWait for ten buysOn launches on Elysium: +11.8 points a trade against a coin flip (+0.2 to +24.2), 80 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  10. UNRESOLVEDBuy after a doubleOn launches on Elysium: +9.8 points a trade against a coin flip (−6.2 to +26.6), 55 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  11. UNRESOLVEDDo not chaseOn launches on Elysium: +3.1 points a trade against a coin flip (−3.7 to +11.0), 82 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  12. UNRESOLVEDFollow the volumeOn launches on Elysium: +8.3 points a trade against a coin flip (−0.3 to +17.2), 135 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  13. UNRESOLVEDQuick flipOn launches on Elysium: +3.8 points a trade against a coin flip (−0.0 to +8.0), 123 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  14. EXCITESBuy in the first minuteOn launches on Elysium: +8.3 points a trade against a coin flip (+1.9 to +18.2), 69 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  15. EXCITESWait for ten buysOn launches on Elysium: +16.4 points a trade against a coin flip (+1.2 to +33.0), 50 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  16. UNRESOLVEDBuy after a doubleOn launches on Elysium: +26.1 points a trade against a coin flip (−2.1 to +56.5), 25 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  17. UNRESOLVEDDo not chaseOn launches on Elysium: +5.4 points a trade against a coin flip (−0.9 to +12.3), 113 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  18. UNRESOLVEDFollow the volumeOn launches on Elysium: +6.1 points a trade against a coin flip (−4.3 to +17.2), 65 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  19. EXCITESHold for a dayOn launches on Elysium: +0.8 points a trade against a coin flip (+0.3 to +1.4), 118 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  20. UNRESOLVEDQuick flipOn launches on Elysium: +2.8 points a trade against a coin flip (−1.6 to +7.3), 69 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  21. EXCITESBuy in the first minuteOn launches on Elysium: +3.5 points a trade against a coin flip (+1.1 to +7.3), 69 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  22. UNRESOLVEDWait for ten buysOn launches on Elysium: +10.0 points a trade against a coin flip (−2.1 to +23.2), 65 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  23. UNRESOLVEDBuy after a doubleOn launches on Elysium: +3.8 points a trade against a coin flip (−20.7 to +29.8), 30 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  24. UNRESOLVEDDo not chaseOn launches on Elysium: +1.8 points a trade against a coin flip (−5.5 to +10.3), 67 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  25. UNRESOLVEDFollow the volumeOn launches on Elysium: +6.5 points a trade against a coin flip (−7.8 to +22.1), 53 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  26. EXCITESQuick flipOn launches on Elysium: +4.1 points a trade against a coin flip (+0.1 to +8.5), 100 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  27. EXCITESBuy in the first minuteOn launches on Elysium: +3.2 points a trade against a coin flip (+0.5 to +7.1), 89 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  28. UNRESOLVEDWait for ten buysOn launches on Elysium: −12.1 points a trade against a coin flip (−24.1 to +1.1), 49 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  29. UNRESOLVEDBuy after a doubleOn launches on Elysium: +20.7 points a trade against a coin flip (−26.4 to +75.8), 9 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  30. UNRESOLVEDDo not chaseOn launches on Elysium: +4.3 points a trade against a coin flip (−0.2 to +9.2), 172 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  31. UNRESOLVEDFollow the volumeOn launches on Elysium: +6.4 points a trade against a coin flip (−4.5 to +18.3), 83 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  32. INHIBITSQuick flipOn launches on Elysium: −3.6 points a trade against a coin flip (−7.5 to −0.1), 85 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  33. EXCITESBuy in the first minuteOn launches on Elysium: +0.5 points a trade against a coin flip (+0.1 to +1.0), 119 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  34. UNRESOLVEDWait for ten buysOn launches on Elysium: +10.5 points a trade against a coin flip (−4.0 to +26.7), 49 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  35. UNRESOLVEDBuy after a doubleOn launches on Elysium: +10.6 points a trade against a coin flip (−27.8 to +54.0), 15 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  36. EXCITESDo not chaseOn launches on Elysium: +12.3 points a trade against a coin flip (+1.3 to +24.9), 84 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  37. UNRESOLVEDFollow the volumeOn launches on Elysium: +8.8 points a trade against a coin flip (−4.3 to +23.4), 74 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  38. EXCITESQuick flipOn launches on Elysium: +6.7 points a trade against a coin flip (+1.1 to +12.9), 87 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.
  39. EXCITESBuy in the first minuteOn launches on Elysium: +3.4 points a trade against a coin flip (+0.9 to +6.6), 107 trades. A rule, never a coin; not financial advice.

Where OPSIN was wrong

  1. Cautious risk managerIt predicted INERT; the verdict was INHIBITS −15.4, on Agent safety, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off. Notebook #035
  2. Double-checkIt predicted UNRESOLVED; the verdict was EXCITES +13.8, on DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off. Notebook #044
  3. Calculator toolIt predicted INERT; the verdict was EXCITES +11.9, on Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off. Notebook #039

What it foresaw

  1. Foresight1.47 bits of surprise per verdict on 81 parts, committed before each beacon; the forecast it writes scored 1.60 on the same parts. An even guess scores 2.00; lower is better.
  2. A penalty threatIt did not see this coming: INERT −0.3 on Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, which its foresight gave 2%. Notebook #067
  3. Units on every amountIt did not see this coming: INHIBITS −5.0 on Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off, which its foresight gave 9%. Notebook #067

The lab’s own checks

  1. PlaceboA do-nothing line came out clear in 8 of 80 notebooks.
  2. ControlsThe unchanged agent differed from itself in 3 of 80 notebooks.
  3. PredictionsOPSIN called 145 of 346 verdicts before the beacon drew the tasks.

What it tests next

  1. Verify exact arithmeticDeFi maths. Verdict 505 stopped early at 96 pairs with EXCITES +15.1 in Notebook #082; measured again at full size, with no early stop
  2. High-precision exp and divisionDeFi maths. Verdict 506 stopped early at 192 pairs with EXCITES +10.4 in Notebook #082; measured again at full size, with no early stop
  3. Answer onlyDeFi maths. Held at −34.4 on Haiku 5.5 with thinking off; does it matter on Sonnet 5.5?

Signed by the lab’s key 0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD. Digest a84e3b80f610870b88a5ba22c90ff46d121ee3e81ffbb490fa1c3741855e0224. The signed JSON. Every issue.