Notebook #062 · published
DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on
Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole token for bonding-curve buys). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 89.0% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 2 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.
1 part is not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 0 of 1 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 32% on average; a guess gives 25%.
- Preregistered
- sha256 50effabb7ff7b8a1837e9f8856c721225c1f6000eb6a4ec16e50920d0ed4f174
the full design, as JSON - Tasks drawn by
- drand round 6,622,920
seed drand:6622920:1d15c1ae74954136ee0d4a0ca92547925a6292fb4d8460e9c17b10e3ec7a1106 - Signed by
- 0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself - Every run
- Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
- Recorded on Elysium
- transaction 0x313152f022ae048996066285362d9505d2e1bf775db7d2b8d485c97266788a5f
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
The control check tripped. The unchanged agent differed from itself beyond noise in this notebook, so small effects deserve less trust. It is on the record as preregistered.
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Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 386EXCITES +3.9+0.2 to +7.4
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PlaceboThis conversation is taking place on a Tuesday.signed verdict 387INERT +1.5−1.5 to +4.5 ×0.99
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Verify exact arithmeticline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.45 · foresight EXCITES 57%, UNRESOLVED 32%, INERT 11% · against the placebo +1.2signed verdict 388UNRESOLVED +2.7−0.8 to +6.0 ×1.26