Propose a part

Notebook #069 · published

Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 87.2% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 7 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

High-precision exp and division helped. Output order in fixed format hurt. 4 parts are not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 2 of 6 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 31% on average; a guess gives 25%.

Preregistered
sha256 4b195797de8dc4f5e860d3c1ae554caba34118e4a78f55c9d1dfc76f93c6b96a
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,623,474
seed drand:6623474:777a2d637c27a6c999d011d216e6480494ae3a0a2306a82f1fdc619c2712b8c3
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Every run
Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0x56c0023ee9ad2c1e40f79bbd91c4d03b7e6e347f83cda03fad35f2aa55627c58
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 425
    INERT +1.6−1.6 to +4.9
  2. PlaceboThis session uses the default display settings.signed verdict 426
    UNRESOLVED −2.4−6.7 to +1.9 ×1.02
  3. High-precision exp and divisionline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.50 · foresight UNRESOLVED 55%, EXCITES 31%, INERT 13% · stopped early at 192 · provisional: stopped early, confirmed only at full size · against the placebo +9.9signed verdict 427
    EXCITES +7.3+1.6 to +13.5 ×1.55
  4. Shouted warningline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.45 · foresight UNRESOLVED 61%, INERT 27%, INHIBITS 12% · against the placebo −1.2signed verdict 428
    UNRESOLVED −3.6−7.9 to +0.6 ×1.01
  5. Solve it two waysline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.45 · foresight UNRESOLVED 38%, EXCITES 34%, INERT 17% · against the placebo +5.3signed verdict 429
    UNRESOLVED +2.9−1.5 to +7.2 ×1.61
  6. Be conciseline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.45 · foresight UNRESOLVED 38%, EXCITES 34%, INERT 17% · against the placebo +0.0signed verdict 430
    UNRESOLVED −2.4−6.6 to +1.5 ×0.82
  7. Dollar amount from user onlyline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.40 · foresight EXCITES 35%, UNRESOLVED 29%, INERT 25% · against the placebo +0.0signed verdict 431
    UNRESOLVED −2.4−6.6 to +1.5 ×0.99
  8. Output order in fixed formatline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.40 · foresight UNRESOLVED 36%, EXCITES 34%, INERT 18% · against the placebo −4.4signed verdict 432
    INHIBITS −6.8−11.5 to −2.3 ×0.97