Propose a part

Notebook #082 · published

DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole token for bonding-curve buys). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 57.2% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 6 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

Verify by inverse, Decompose and verify products, Verify exact arithmetic and High-precision exp and division helped. 1 part is not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 3 of 5 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 44% on average; a guess gives 25%.

Preregistered
sha256 00656bb33d1684237cc53a635c0a24b9f50fba73d70ae406a6be0ade973b3960
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,624,707
seed drand:6624707:7a4a9492fcb03199b1f1ad9ae0f74b7b60f3d50fc938b5224504e02adc7a3380
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Every run
Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0xc0656d5f7bf709a46dc545b71445cffe1eda33a90d7b47b2a9db9e1723582d25
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 500
    UNRESOLVED −0.9−5.1 to +3.0
  2. PlaceboThis message was typed on a standard keyboard.signed verdict 501
    UNRESOLVED −0.7−5.4 to +4.2 ×0.98
  3. Verify by inverseline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.60 · foresight EXCITES 88%, UNRESOLVED 12% · re-measures verdict 489 (EXCITES +25.0): it held · against the placebo +21.5signed verdict 502
    EXCITES +20.8+15.6 to +26.2 ×1.99
  4. Decompose and verify productsline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.70 · foresight EXCITES 70%, UNRESOLVED 30% · re-measures verdict 490 (EXCITES +22.9): it held · against the placebo +20.6signed verdict 503
    EXCITES +19.9+14.6 to +25.1 ×2.04
  5. Full-precision intermediatesline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.55 · foresight UNRESOLVED 85%, EXCITES 14% · against the placebo +3.7signed verdict 504
    UNRESOLVED +3.0−2.1 to +8.1 ×1.22
  6. Verify exact arithmeticline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.45 · foresight UNRESOLVED 66%, EXCITES 19% · stopped early at 96 · provisional: stopped early, confirmed only at full size · against the placebo +14.6signed verdict 505
    EXCITES +15.1+4.2 to +26.0 ×1.62
  7. High-precision exp and divisionline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.55 · foresight UNRESOLVED 70%, EXCITES 16% · stopped early at 192 · provisional: stopped early, confirmed only at full size · against the placebo +9.9signed verdict 506
    EXCITES +10.4+2.9 to +18.0 ×1.45