Propose a part

Notebook #076 · published

DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole token for bonding-curve buys). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 59.3% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 5 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

Calculator tool, Calculator tool + Double-check, Calculator tool + A penalty threat and Calculator tool + Read the question again helped. OPSIN called 4 of 4 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 82% on average; a guess gives 25%.

Preregistered
sha256 fa3f8e875b647e0130e0d690135c89dec3800581a0fe0aa1c2fbc7f29d39422b
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,623,955
seed drand:6623955:fa305c60dd5e28d835759bbc96b39be63466d69c80c7d7d4823e8ce42eaadd4c
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Every run
Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0x8162ff529bfba383e6639752e16ba79d6fca49400ee956676656b09d2bcffc3e
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 474
    INERT +0.5−3.7 to +4.6
  2. PlaceboThis conversation is taking place on a Tuesday.signed verdict 475
    UNRESOLVED −1.2−6.3 to +3.9 ×0.96
  3. Calculator tooltool · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.96 · foresight EXCITES 100% · against the placebo +41.4signed verdict 476
    EXCITES +40.3+35.0 to +45.6 ×1.39
  4. Calculator tool + Double-checkstack · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.88 · foresight EXCITES 77%, UNRESOLVED 13% · against the placebo +41.4signed verdict 477
    EXCITES +40.3+34.7 to +46.0 ×1.78
  5. Calculator tool + A penalty threatstack · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.86 · foresight EXCITES 76%, UNRESOLVED 13% · against the placebo +41.9signed verdict 478
    EXCITES +40.7+35.3 to +46.2 ×1.46
  6. Calculator tool + Read the question againstack · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.87 · foresight EXCITES 76%, UNRESOLVED 13% · against the placebo +41.9signed verdict 479
    EXCITES +40.7+35.2 to +46.2 ×1.48