Propose a part

Notebook #061 · published

DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking on

Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole token for bonding-curve buys). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 88.5% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 3 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

Shouting and Verify exact arithmetic helped. OPSIN called 0 of 2 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 30% on average; a guess gives 25%.

Preregistered
sha256 786b97b35a33719505c19ef47b2bcca39e7bca9c589dff0e0616268518f1463f
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,622,752
seed drand:6622752:409a593efd8f753eeb9f5be726275892f5c37234bb642d72e4da9db976370f6e
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Every run
Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0xd44410f9b6e014e8b8e591add90db20b559f0abb777f6de0f2265c8003858592
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 382
    INERT −0.7−4.4 to +3.0
  2. PlaceboThis message was typed on a standard keyboard.signed verdict 383
    INERT +1.0−3.0 to +5.0 ×1.04
  3. Shoutingline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.45 · foresight EXCITES 63%, UNRESOLVED 32% · against the placebo +3.9signed verdict 384
    EXCITES +5.0+1.4 to +8.6 ×1.27
  4. Verify exact arithmeticline · OPSIN's design, from the misses it read · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.45 · foresight UNRESOLVED 43%, INERT 31%, EXCITES 14% · against the placebo +3.7signed verdict 385
    EXCITES +4.8+1.5 to +8.1 ×1.30