Propose a part

Notebook #074 · published

Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 88.2% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 4 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

State your assumption and Estimate first hurt. 1 part is not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 2 of 3 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 51% on average; a guess gives 25%.

Preregistered
sha256 130250af1a05c946fb6dcd4bd7a77345efc3fbf1021faf65503c83b86a933d8d
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,623,834
seed drand:6623834:14e277f63e1a128d14c5206a6708a63c2756e3c11ce79a164c1adbc75ba5813a
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Every run
Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0x029ba22b01f120cab2bea7e43ee7f61fe399c44f679a996f1340c4211aa17335
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 465
    INERT +1.4−1.4 to +4.2
  2. PlaceboThis session uses the default display settings.signed verdict 466
    UNRESOLVED +1.6−1.9 to +5.1 ×1.00
  3. State your assumptionline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.50 · foresight INHIBITS 49%, UNRESOLVED 40%, INERT 11% · against the placebo −5.6signed verdict 467
    INHIBITS −3.9−7.5 to −0.5 ×0.96
  4. Estimate firstline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INHIBITS at 0.40 · foresight INHIBITS 65%, UNRESOLVED 30% · stopped early at 192 · provisional: stopped early, confirmed only at full size · against the placebo −8.8signed verdict 468
    INHIBITS −8.6−15.1 to −2.6 ×1.24
  5. Smallest units firstline · OPSIN's pick · DeFi agent rules files · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.50 · foresight UNRESOLVED 43%, EXCITES 21%, INERT 20% · against the placebo +0.0signed verdict 469
    UNRESOLVED +1.6−2.3 to +5.7 ×1.20