Propose a part

Notebook #066 · published

Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 86.2% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 7 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

Calculator tool + Double-check, A penalty threat and Read the question again helped. 3 parts are not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 1 of 6 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 32% on average; a guess gives 25%.

Preregistered
sha256 87e1441a52ce82e3b891135462a8bbf0170391b9b4c7d71b6852c186a54fb77a
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,623,293
seed drand:6623293:fef4d98a568a1fe08adf55498d94dd534754199d252b0d23f5362e475fcf8d03
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Every run
Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0x1fbe733126987047000377186ec7b5dea63f99a586ba6e98bcadd5684eb32f46
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 401
    INERT +1.2−2.1 to +4.6
  2. PlaceboThe weather outside is mild today.signed verdict 402
    UNRESOLVED +2.9−0.8 to +6.6 ×0.97
  3. Calculator tool + Double-checkstack · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.75 · foresight EXCITES 100% · stopped early at 96 · provisional: stopped early, confirmed only at full size · against the placebo +8.3signed verdict 403
    EXCITES +12.5+5.7 to +20.3 ×2.41
  4. Take a deep breathline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.50 · foresight EXCITES 38%, INERT 30%, UNRESOLVED 19% · against the placebo −0.7signed verdict 404
    UNRESOLVED +2.2−1.7 to +6.1 ×1.17
  5. Important to my careerline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.45 · foresight EXCITES 37%, INERT 28%, UNRESOLVED 20% · against the placebo −0.5signed verdict 405
    UNRESOLVED +2.4−1.4 to +6.4 ×1.06
  6. A penalty threatline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.45 · foresight EXCITES 38%, INERT 28%, UNRESOLVED 19% · against the placebo +2.1signed verdict 406
    EXCITES +5.0+1.5 to +8.6 ×1.05
  7. Read the question againline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.45 · foresight EXCITES 38%, INERT 28%, UNRESOLVED 19% · against the placebo +2.3signed verdict 407
    EXCITES +5.2+1.6 to +9.0 ×1.14
  8. Units on every amountline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.45 · foresight EXCITES 39%, INERT 28%, UNRESOLVED 19% · against the placebo −4.2signed verdict 408
    UNRESOLVED −1.3−5.4 to +2.8 ×1.23