{"id":65,"notebook":66,"tag":"#066","status":"published","suite":"markets-maths","suiteTitle":"Markets maths","exactMeans":"the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages)","base":{"model":"claude-haiku-5-5","thinking":"off"},"pairsDone":432,"maxPairs":432,"beaconRound":6623293,"beaconAt":"2026-11-08T09:23:30.000Z","beacon":{"chain":"8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce","round":6623293,"signature":"ac0ab3a34d0a806c9c29c4af952c403158019597ee2f4c9a31deca41bd9f6c4c55ff1fb32e0ab0e56e91916107b3efc50e485a7da5c90b406fc9ca27ef0025f6c258b85989c58e6edfe9c43ed4e53c9b573f9f9d432a0ee117176e237cece8b6","randomness":"fef4d98a568a1fe08adf55498d94dd534754199d252b0d23f5362e475fcf8d03","publishedAt":"2026-11-08T09:23:30.000Z"},"seed":"drand:6623293:fef4d98a568a1fe08adf55498d94dd534754199d252b0d23f5362e475fcf8d03","preregHash":"87e1441a52ce82e3b891135462a8bbf0170391b9b4c7d71b6852c186a54fb77a","prereg":{"lab":"OPSIN","arms":[{"role":"control-a","fingerprint":"e8196002f86b48c858d44d742c91d318bb7ccf07b48ab8136a10261c7e23c4bc"},{"role":"control-b","fingerprint":"e8196002f86b48c858d44d742c91d318bb7ccf07b48ab8136a10261c7e23c4bc"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"The weather outside is mild today."},"role":"placebo","fingerprint":"2301ae538958a907ae3238279461242dab402572f726941a5a96d423f314442a"},{"part":{"kind":"stack","parts":[{"kind":"tool","tool":"calculator"},{"kind":"line","text":"Before you answer, double-check every calculation."}]},"role":"part","label":"Calculator tool + Double-check","proposal":275,"fingerprint":"176fe0751aa2f06fa1ff4180e47512e048418544749deef9ca61c45ba501c8e4"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"Take a deep breath and work on this problem step-by-step."},"role":"part","label":"Take a deep breath","proposal":276,"fingerprint":"96179517c84e05dfa2d6ce0b2a84a2222e978dbdb2b84ffa65e1ffce6a3d1a21"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"This is very important to my career."},"role":"part","label":"Important to my career","proposal":277,"fingerprint":"4bf54a9ea4fd8a83705e7179fc73163f5ad13f3fecd12e3ddae0cf11ecff0bcd"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"You will be penalized if you get this wrong."},"role":"part","label":"A penalty threat","proposal":278,"fingerprint":"3d9169d06ac6a369c8c2d17f51508dda34f6597acda3c363270d92e83c0f2ac5"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"Read the question again before you answer."},"role":"part","label":"Read the question again","proposal":279,"fingerprint":"87f738de8ae0ca7233faef8cec2a3eb1c353b3df873ea4918f391cb0bbead39b"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"Write every amount with its unit before you compute anything."},"role":"part","label":"Units on every amount","proposal":280,"fingerprint":"4db25a8c909ca5364ed570869a3d8fbd718281048fcee6138f57acd266176f8d"}],"base":{"model":"claude-haiku-5-5","thinking":"off"},"kind":"cycle","rule":{"cost":"each part's cost over the controls' mean, both at list prices: a batched run was paid half, so it is doubled","INERT":"adjusted interval entirely inside ±5 points","errors":"a task with an errored run in any compared arm is left out of that comparison","metric":"exact: the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages)","EXCITES":"adjusted interval entirely above 0","control":"each part against the per-task mean of two unchanged runs of the base agent","interim":"before the last look, a part stops early only if |z| ≥ 3.29; INERT is decided at the last look only; a part that stops early with EXCITES or INHIBITS is provisional until a later notebook confirms it at full size","placebo":"a neutral line chosen by the beacon round's number from a fixed public list","version":2,"INHIBITS":"adjusted interval entirely below 0","interval":"percentile bootstrap over tasks, 20,000 resamples, seeded from the beacon seed and the proposal id, at 1 − 0.05/7: 7 arms (the parts and the placebo) are compared with the controls, so the chance that any arm of this notebook flags by luck stays at or under 5%","UNRESOLVED":"anything else","confirmations":"an arm that re-measures an earlier early stop never stops early","versusPlacebo":"each part is also compared with the placebo on the same tasks, 95% interval, reported beside its verdict"},"looks":[48,96,192,432],"suite":{"id":"markets-maths","version":"tasks-1","exactMeans":"the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages)"},"beacon":{"rule":"first drand round at least 600 seconds after this preregistration","chain":"8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce","round":6623293},"prices":"2026-11-04","version":2,"maxPairs":432,"foresight":{"arms":[{"basis":"measured","rates":{"INERT":0.0917,"EXCITES":0.5138,"INHIBITS":0.1587,"UNRESOLVED":0.2358},"record":{"INERT":0.0001,"EXCITES":0.9976,"INHIBITS":0.0001,"UNRESOLVED":0.0021},"chances":{"INERT":0.0001,"EXCITES":0.9977,"INHIBITS":0.0001,"UNRESOLVED":0.0021},"measured":1,"proposal":275},{"basis":"new","rates":{"INERT":0.2996,"EXCITES":0.3969,"INHIBITS":0.1238,"UNRESOLVED":0.1797},"record":{"INERT":0.0941,"EXCITES":0.5673,"INHIBITS":0.1293,"UNRESOLVED":0.2093},"chances":{"INERT":0.2978,"EXCITES":0.376,"INHIBITS":0.1407,"UNRESOLVED":0.1855},"measured":0,"proposal":276},{"basis":"new","rates":{"INERT":0.2996,"EXCITES":0.3969,"INHIBITS":0.1238,"UNRESOLVED":0.1797},"record":{"INERT":0.1033,"EXCITES":0.5434,"INHIBITS":0.1311,"UNRESOLVED":0.2223},"chances":{"INERT":0.2835,"EXCITES":0.3734,"INHIBITS":0.1472,"UNRESOLVED":0.1959},"measured":0,"proposal":277},{"basis":"new","rates":{"INERT":0.2996,"EXCITES":0.3969,"INHIBITS":0.1238,"UNRESOLVED":0.1797},"record":{"INERT":0.1008,"EXCITES":0.5648,"INHIBITS":0.1288,"UNRESOLVED":0.2055},"chances":{"INERT":0.2827,"EXCITES":0.3809,"INHIBITS":0.1464,"UNRESOLVED":0.19},"measured":0,"proposal":278},{"basis":"new","rates":{"INERT":0.2996,"EXCITES":0.3969,"INHIBITS":0.1238,"UNRESOLVED":0.1797},"record":{"INERT":0.0898,"EXCITES":0.5648,"INHIBITS":0.1378,"UNRESOLVED":0.2075},"chances":{"INERT":0.2788,"EXCITES":0.3809,"INHIBITS":0.1495,"UNRESOLVED":0.1907},"measured":0,"proposal":279},{"basis":"new","rates":{"INERT":0.2996,"EXCITES":0.3969,"INHIBITS":0.1238,"UNRESOLVED":0.1797},"record":{"INERT":0.0841,"EXCITES":0.5778,"INHIBITS":0.1316,"UNRESOLVED":0.2065},"chances":{"INERT":0.2768,"EXCITES":0.3855,"INHIBITS":0.1474,"UNRESOLVED":0.1904},"measured":0,"proposal":280}],"version":1,"weights":{"new":[0.35,0.35,0.3],"stack":[0.33,0.33,0.33],"measured":[0,1,0]}},"predictor":2,"writtenAt":"2026-11-08T09:13:14.523Z","predictedBy":"claude-sonnet-5-5","predictions":[{"p":0.75,"why":"Same setting EXCITES +13.2; likely shrinks but stays positive","effect":9,"verdict":"EXCITES","proposal":275},{"p":0.5,"why":"Small effects elsewhere; base near ceiling at 86.8%","effect":1.5,"verdict":"INERT","proposal":276},{"p":0.45,"why":"Mostly small negatives; early-stop harm likely overstated","effect":-2,"verdict":"INERT","proposal":277},{"p":0.45,"why":"Replicated gains in DeFi, but weaker in other settings","effect":2.5,"verdict":"INERT","proposal":278},{"p":0.45,"why":"DeFi gains replicated; Markets maths likely smaller","effect":2,"verdict":"INERT","proposal":279},{"p":0.45,"why":"Mixed negatives; one early inhibit unlikely to carry over","effect":-2.5,"verdict":"INERT","proposal":280}]},"createdAt":"2026-11-08T09:13:14.872Z","publishedAt":"2026-11-08T09:38:01.148Z","error":null,"controlsTripped":false,"baseExact":0.8623,"arms":[{"id":473,"role":"control-a","label":"Control A","kind":"control-a","text":null,"proposalId":null,"origin":null,"stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":370,"prediction":null,"foresight":null,"verdict":null},{"id":474,"role":"control-b","label":"Control B","kind":"control-b","text":null,"proposalId":null,"origin":null,"stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":375,"prediction":null,"foresight":null,"verdict":{"id":401,"verdict":"INERT","effect":1.16,"lo":-2.08,"hi":4.63,"n":432,"costRatio":null,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":null,"raw95":null,"vsPlacebo":null,"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":475,"role":"placebo","label":"Placebo","kind":"placebo","text":"The weather outside is mild today.","proposalId":null,"origin":null,"stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":385,"prediction":null,"foresight":null,"verdict":{"id":402,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","effect":2.89,"lo":-0.81,"hi":6.6,"n":432,"costRatio":0.969,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":5.67,"lo":0.12,"verdict":"EXCITES"},"vsPlacebo":null,"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":476,"role":"part","label":"Calculator tool + Double-check","kind":"stack","text":null,"proposalId":275,"origin":"OPSIN's replication","stoppedAt":96,"done":96,"exact":96,"prediction":{"verdict":"EXCITES","p":0.75,"why":"Same setting EXCITES +13.2; likely shrinks but stays positive"},"foresight":{"basis":"measured","measured":1,"chances":{"INERT":0.0001,"EXCITES":0.9977,"INHIBITS":0.0001,"UNRESOLVED":0.0021}},"verdict":{"id":403,"verdict":"EXCITES","effect":12.5,"lo":5.73,"hi":20.31,"n":96,"costRatio":2.41,"stoppedEarly":true,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":18.23,"lo":7.29,"verdict":"EXCITES"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":96,"hi":14.58,"lo":3.13,"effect":8.33},"provisional":true,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":477,"role":"part","label":"Take a deep breath","kind":"line","text":"Take a deep breath and work on this problem step-by-step.","proposalId":276,"origin":"OPSIN's follow-up","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":382,"prediction":{"verdict":"INERT","p":0.5,"why":"Small effects elsewhere; base near ceiling at 86.8%"},"foresight":{"basis":"new","measured":0,"chances":{"INERT":0.2978,"EXCITES":0.376,"INHIBITS":0.1407,"UNRESOLVED":0.1855}},"verdict":{"id":404,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","effect":2.2,"lo":-1.74,"hi":6.13,"n":432,"costRatio":1.171,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":4.98,"lo":-0.69,"verdict":"INERT"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":2.55,"lo":-3.94,"effect":-0.69},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":478,"role":"part","label":"Important to my career","kind":"line","text":"This is very important to my career.","proposalId":277,"origin":"OPSIN's follow-up","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":383,"prediction":{"verdict":"INERT","p":0.45,"why":"Mostly small negatives; early-stop harm likely overstated"},"foresight":{"basis":"new","measured":0,"chances":{"INERT":0.2835,"EXCITES":0.3734,"INHIBITS":0.1472,"UNRESOLVED":0.1959}},"verdict":{"id":405,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","effect":2.43,"lo":-1.39,"hi":6.37,"n":432,"costRatio":1.063,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":5.32,"lo":-0.46,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":2.55,"lo":-3.7,"effect":-0.46},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":479,"role":"part","label":"A penalty threat","kind":"line","text":"You will be penalized if you get this wrong.","proposalId":278,"origin":"OPSIN's follow-up","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":394,"prediction":{"verdict":"INERT","p":0.45,"why":"Replicated gains in DeFi, but weaker in other settings"},"foresight":{"basis":"new","measured":0,"chances":{"INERT":0.2827,"EXCITES":0.3809,"INHIBITS":0.1464,"UNRESOLVED":0.19}},"verdict":{"id":406,"verdict":"EXCITES","effect":4.98,"lo":1.5,"hi":8.56,"n":432,"costRatio":1.054,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":7.52,"lo":2.43,"verdict":"EXCITES"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":5.32,"lo":-1.16,"effect":2.08},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":480,"role":"part","label":"Read the question again","kind":"line","text":"Read the question again before you answer.","proposalId":279,"origin":"OPSIN's follow-up","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":395,"prediction":{"verdict":"INERT","p":0.45,"why":"DeFi gains replicated; Markets maths likely smaller"},"foresight":{"basis":"new","measured":0,"chances":{"INERT":0.2788,"EXCITES":0.3809,"INHIBITS":0.1495,"UNRESOLVED":0.1907}},"verdict":{"id":407,"verdict":"EXCITES","effect":5.21,"lo":1.62,"hi":9.03,"n":432,"costRatio":1.135,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":7.87,"lo":2.55,"verdict":"EXCITES"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":5.32,"lo":-0.69,"effect":2.31},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":481,"role":"part","label":"Units on every amount","kind":"line","text":"Write every amount with its unit before you compute anything.","proposalId":280,"origin":"OPSIN's follow-up","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":367,"prediction":{"verdict":"INERT","p":0.45,"why":"Mixed negatives; one early inhibit unlikely to carry over"},"foresight":{"basis":"new","measured":0,"chances":{"INERT":0.2768,"EXCITES":0.3855,"INHIBITS":0.1474,"UNRESOLVED":0.1904}},"verdict":{"id":408,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","effect":-1.27,"lo":-5.44,"hi":2.78,"n":432,"costRatio":1.225,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":1.74,"lo":-4.28,"verdict":"INERT"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":-0.69,"lo":-7.64,"effect":-4.17},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}}]}