Propose a part

Notebook #068 · published

Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 87.0% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 7 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

Decompose and verify products helped. 1 part did nothing measurable. 4 parts are not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 3 of 6 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 45% on average; a guess gives 25%.

Preregistered
sha256 d84fe756a9c522bc16f850f46574ee72345ae0c6eacef3cea6fe35945466c79c
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,623,414
seed drand:6623414:47b62adfd6aff53c9a857727b1899352e9881e3f9a62b2a72c98ab5b8807c43a
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Every run
Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0x0ecf4ef78a6821036dc7e4e9974cb76bdbabfe40cabb6a8d40a2c2e20de46e3a
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 417
    INERT −1.4−4.6 to +1.9
  2. PlaceboThis session uses the default display settings.signed verdict 418
    UNRESOLVED −2.1−6.5 to +2.2 ×1.01
  3. Decompose and verify productsline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.50 · foresight EXCITES 96% · re-measures verdict 416 (EXCITES +14.6): it held · against the placebo +12.7signed verdict 419
    EXCITES +10.7+6.8 to +14.7 ×2.17
  4. A penalty threatline · OPSIN's second look at a surprise · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.55 · foresight UNRESOLVED 62%, EXCITES 21%, INERT 17% · against the placebo +4.9signed verdict 420
    UNRESOLVED +2.8−1.3 to +6.8 ×1.05
  5. Units on every amountline · OPSIN's second look at a surprise · OPSIN predicted INHIBITS at 0.40 · foresight UNRESOLVED 59%, INHIBITS 28%, INERT 13% · against the placebo −1.4signed verdict 421
    UNRESOLVED −3.5−8.1 to +1.2 ×1.25
  6. High-precision exp and divisionline · OPSIN's design, from the misses it read · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.40 · foresight EXCITES 39%, UNRESOLVED 33%, INERT 16% · against the placebo +5.1signed verdict 422
    UNRESOLVED +3.0−1.4 to +7.4 ×1.47
  7. Shouted warningline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.50 · foresight EXCITES 38%, INERT 27%, UNRESOLVED 24% · against the placebo +0.5signed verdict 423
    UNRESOLVED −1.6−6.1 to +2.7 ×1.01
  8. Wallet on the lineline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.60 · foresight EXCITES 36%, INERT 30%, UNRESOLVED 23% · against the placebo +1.4signed verdict 424
    INERT −0.7−4.8 to +3.0 ×1.06