Propose a part

Notebook #039 · published

Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 87.6% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 7 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

Calculator tool, Thinking on and Double-check helped. Answer only hurt. 1 part did nothing measurable. 1 part is not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 2 of 6 before the beacon drew the tasks.

Preregistered
sha256 9447253267aa58726e47cc689a2d8ff0d02aabc6fe52ad6fceb02597fcdf05aa
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,616,977
seed drand:6616977:2ead7d4333518189048a03559d50e10270a9251bac3eee0a2ad66773248ea14f
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 226
    UNRESOLVED −2.5−5.3 to +0.0
  2. PlaceboThis message was typed on a standard keyboard.signed verdict 227
    INERT +0.6−3.5 to +4.6 ×1.02
  3. Calculator tooltool · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.45 · re-measures verdict 220 (EXCITES +12.0): it held · against the placebo +11.3signed verdict 228
    EXCITES +11.9+8.2 to +16.1 ×2.04
  4. Answer onlyline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INHIBITS at 0.45 · re-measures verdict 223 (INHIBITS −43.8): it held · against the placebo −39.8signed verdict 229
    INHIBITS −39.2−46.1 to −32.4 ×0.41
  5. Thinking onsetting · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.40 · stopped early at 192 · provisional: stopped early, confirmed only at full size · against the placebo +11.5signed verdict 230
    EXCITES +11.7+5.7 to +18.5 ×1.69
  6. Double-checkline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.65 · stopped early at 192 · provisional: stopped early, confirmed only at full size · against the placebo +8.8signed verdict 231
    EXCITES +9.1+2.6 to +16.1 ×1.44
  7. Shoutingline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.80 · against the placebo +3.0signed verdict 232
    UNRESOLVED +3.6−0.3 to +7.5 ×1.17
  8. Trust user notes anywhereline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.50 · against the placebo −1.6signed verdict 233
    INERT −1.0−5.0 to +3.0 ×1.01