Propose a part

Notebook #044 · published

DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole token for bonding-curve buys). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 60.5% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 7 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

Double-check, Calculator tool and Thinking on helped. Answer only hurt. 2 parts are not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 4 of 6 before the beacon drew the tasks.

Preregistered
sha256 4e9b9a60e6874699ef605970c7af34979674f85e9caed601845bd4984fa181a6
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,617,478
seed drand:6617478:bd35f22322534f1d24d2937048e15982113e077907ebbc0d0ca1ea137a2a4104
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 262
    UNRESOLVED −1.6−5.6 to +2.5
  2. PlaceboThe weather outside is mild today.signed verdict 263
    UNRESOLVED −4.0−9.3 to +1.3 ×0.94
  3. Double-checkline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.40 · re-measures verdict 259 (EXCITES +13.8): it held · against the placebo +17.8signed verdict 264
    EXCITES +13.8+9.1 to +18.5 ×1.50
  4. Answer onlyline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INHIBITS at 0.50 · re-measures verdict 260 (INHIBITS −46.9): it held · against the placebo −30.3signed verdict 265
    INHIBITS −34.4−41.1 to −27.8 ×0.38
  5. Calculator tooltool · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.70 · re-measures verdict 261 (EXCITES +34.4): it held · against the placebo +42.8signed verdict 266
    EXCITES +38.8+33.0 to +44.6 ×1.40
  6. Thinking onsetting · OPSIN's pick · Notebook #001: +28.5 points on DeFi maths · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.80 · stopped early at 48 · provisional: stopped early, confirmed only at full size · against the placebo +29.2signed verdict 267
    EXCITES +33.3+12.5 to +53.1 ×2.57
  7. Shoutingline · OPSIN's pick · Notebook #001: +6.0 points on DeFi maths with thinking off · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.60 · against the placebo +8.3signed verdict 268
    UNRESOLVED +4.3−0.5 to +9.0 ×1.19
  8. Think step by stepline · OPSIN's pick · Notebook #001: no effect that matters on DeFi maths with thinking off · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.40 · against the placebo +2.3signed verdict 269
    UNRESOLVED −1.7−6.6 to +3.1 ×1.04