Propose a part

Notebook #048 · published

Market calls, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the call was on the right side of what the market really did over the next 24 hours, on moves of at least 1%; a coin flip scores 50%. Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 51.4% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 7 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

2 parts did nothing measurable. 4 parts are not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 2 of 6 before the beacon drew the tasks.

Preregistered
sha256 a7f8e43da71b0d8ebd80f0e05235f1c66c216495d4ad9fa36c77d235edbf6dc9
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,618,593
seed drand:6618593:8d11e35c9dbfd1b7427c39213d6343f798ee78427a6761857d85caa5b5a91851
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0x5c20feb58cd96cdb227fee518b68bf15caa83245b59b951e286303b1a3d3dfcb
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 291
    INERT −0.5−3.9 to +3.0
  2. PlaceboThe weather outside is mild today.signed verdict 292
    UNRESOLVED −1.6−6.3 to +3.0 ×0.93
  3. Thinking onsetting · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.50 · against the placebo +3.0signed verdict 293
    UNRESOLVED +1.4−3.8 to +6.6 ×1.69
  4. Answer onlyline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.55 · against the placebo +3.0signed verdict 294
    UNRESOLVED +1.4−3.5 to +6.4 ×0.30
  5. Bull and bear debateline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.50 · against the placebo −1.4signed verdict 295
    UNRESOLVED −3.0−8.4 to +2.3 ×1.47
  6. A risk manager signs offline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.45 · against the placebo +1.4signed verdict 296
    INERT −0.2−5.0 to +4.5 ×1.67
  7. World-class quantline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.60 · against the placebo +1.4signed verdict 297
    INERT −0.2−4.6 to +4.3 ×1.08
  8. Only short when longs payline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.40 · against the placebo +1.9signed verdict 298
    UNRESOLVED +0.2−6.1 to +6.7 ×0.69