{"id":47,"notebook":48,"tag":"#048","status":"published","suite":"market-calls","suiteTitle":"Market calls","exactMeans":"the call was on the right side of what the market really did over the next 24 hours, on moves of at least 1%; a coin flip scores 50%","base":{"model":"claude-haiku-5-5","thinking":"off"},"pairsDone":432,"maxPairs":432,"beaconRound":6618593,"beaconAt":"2026-11-06T18:13:30.000Z","beacon":{"chain":"8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce","round":6618593,"signature":"a547c73fbe41e85b2c129b819c6775c903c393d4a5431e03cb6be47afabccafb8d9d71261ac8c065f22e17545c5e56a914d9c5f6602010ae819355a2177d2ad22464dde8f2b8bfadf60e765d71525df2bafbbfba663a606c7d006000278c8983","randomness":"8d11e35c9dbfd1b7427c39213d6343f798ee78427a6761857d85caa5b5a91851","publishedAt":"2026-11-06T18:13:30.000Z"},"seed":"drand:6618593:8d11e35c9dbfd1b7427c39213d6343f798ee78427a6761857d85caa5b5a91851","preregHash":"a7f8e43da71b0d8ebd80f0e05235f1c66c216495d4ad9fa36c77d235edbf6dc9","prereg":{"lab":"OPSIN","arms":[{"role":"control-a","fingerprint":"390de07c2b949845e2616ca2092da275dbd561cdab5721bf5a9a9ac3d9357522"},{"role":"control-b","fingerprint":"390de07c2b949845e2616ca2092da275dbd561cdab5721bf5a9a9ac3d9357522"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"The weather outside is mild today."},"role":"placebo","fingerprint":"6db64c188cca6f971253c5297fad34cb08bdfdc5b3e45b0592a3fcc25f6aa7e2"},{"part":{"kind":"setting","thinking":"on"},"role":"part","label":"Thinking on","proposal":201,"fingerprint":"7337ed55951ecf16e3571535e7302735fa84a4ab2ae114dafb0608b6f5dd7cee"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"Reply with only the ANSWER line. Do not show any working."},"role":"part","label":"Answer only","proposal":202,"fingerprint":"969677658bb2e1491fb9ec6dcd674429fbbef0f5c9795c96c3470932e29eecf1"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"Before you decide, write the strongest case for long and the strongest case for short, then decide between them."},"role":"part","label":"Bull and bear debate","proposal":203,"fingerprint":"4bc5fbf7535b04fd003873c36a253ce39513c578910f0b46a12db57df0f21683"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"Before you finish, act as the risk manager who must approve this trade: say what would make it wrong, then confirm or change the call."},"role":"part","label":"A risk manager signs off","proposal":204,"fingerprint":"c5c2986d9b903414ebfac5f9f7d36d05dd53b8ac4e2a174c8cff950e03803220"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"You are a world-class quantitative trader with an exceptional record."},"role":"part","label":"World-class quant","proposal":205,"fingerprint":"145d5c7af353c4823e315d1643327cb0c63f8bccbbcb97c98f097dea75648f5b"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"Only short when longs are paying funding. Otherwise go long."},"role":"part","label":"Only short when longs pay","proposal":206,"fingerprint":"0df64b26221176ea140797a4c2db0d3ddebaed7585c557c7a1113d1ac3f01c92"}],"base":{"model":"claude-haiku-5-5","thinking":"off"},"kind":"cycle","rule":{"cost":"each part's cost over the controls' mean, both at list prices: a batched run was paid half, so it is doubled","INERT":"adjusted interval entirely inside ±5 points","errors":"a task with an errored run in any compared arm is left out of that comparison","metric":"exact: the call was on the right side of what the market really did over the next 24 hours, on moves of at least 1%; a coin flip scores 50%","EXCITES":"adjusted interval entirely above 0","control":"each part against the per-task mean of two unchanged runs of the base agent","interim":"before the last look, a part stops early only if |z| ≥ 3.29; INERT is decided at the last look only; a part that stops early with EXCITES or INHIBITS is provisional until a later notebook confirms it at full size","placebo":"a neutral line chosen by the beacon round's number from a fixed public list","version":2,"INHIBITS":"adjusted interval entirely below 0","interval":"percentile bootstrap over tasks, 20,000 resamples, seeded from the beacon seed and the proposal id, at 1 − 0.05/7: 7 arms (the parts and the placebo) are compared with the controls, so the chance that any arm of this notebook flags by luck stays at or under 5%","UNRESOLVED":"anything else","confirmations":"an arm that re-measures an earlier early stop never stops early","versusPlacebo":"each part is also compared with the placebo on the same tasks, 95% interval, reported beside its verdict"},"looks":[48,96,192,432],"suite":{"id":"market-calls","version":"tasks-1","exactMeans":"the call was on the right side of what the market really did over the next 24 hours, on moves of at least 1%; a coin flip scores 50%"},"beacon":{"rule":"first drand round at least 1800 seconds after this preregistration","chain":"8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce","round":6618593},"prices":"2026-11-04","version":2,"maxPairs":432,"writtenAt":"2026-11-06T17:43:10.794Z","predictedBy":"claude-sonnet-5-5","predictions":[{"p":0.5,"why":"Market direction is near-random; reasoning rarely adds signal","effect":0.5,"verdict":"INERT","proposal":201},{"p":0.55,"why":"Thinking is already off; little change expected","effect":0,"verdict":"INERT","proposal":202},{"p":0.5,"why":"Debate reshuffles the same priors, no new information","effect":0,"verdict":"INERT","proposal":203},{"p":0.45,"why":"Risk sign-off may shift toward caution, small accuracy effect","effect":-0.5,"verdict":"INERT","proposal":204},{"p":0.6,"why":"Persona prompts seldom improve forecasting accuracy","effect":0,"verdict":"INERT","proposal":205},{"p":0.4,"why":"Long bias could help or hurt depending on the market regime","effect":0.5,"verdict":"INERT","proposal":206}]},"createdAt":"2026-11-06T17:43:10.796Z","publishedAt":"2026-11-06T18:29:40.739Z","error":null,"controlsTripped":false,"baseExact":0.5139,"arms":[{"id":345,"role":"control-a","label":"Control A","kind":"control-a","text":null,"proposalId":null,"origin":null,"stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":223,"prediction":null,"verdict":null},{"id":346,"role":"control-b","label":"Control B","kind":"control-b","text":null,"proposalId":null,"origin":null,"stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":221,"prediction":null,"verdict":{"id":291,"verdict":"INERT","effect":-0.46,"lo":-3.94,"hi":3.01,"n":432,"costRatio":null,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":null,"raw95":null,"vsPlacebo":null,"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":347,"role":"placebo","label":"Placebo","kind":"placebo","text":"The weather outside is mild today.","proposalId":null,"origin":null,"stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":215,"prediction":null,"verdict":{"id":292,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","effect":-1.62,"lo":-6.25,"hi":3.01,"n":432,"costRatio":0.927,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":1.85,"lo":-4.98,"verdict":"INERT"},"vsPlacebo":null,"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":348,"role":"part","label":"Thinking on","kind":"setting","text":null,"proposalId":201,"origin":"OPSIN's pick","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":228,"prediction":{"verdict":"INERT","p":0.5,"why":"Market direction is near-random; reasoning rarely adds signal"},"verdict":{"id":293,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","effect":1.39,"lo":-3.82,"hi":6.6,"n":432,"costRatio":1.688,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":5.32,"lo":-2.43,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":7.18,"lo":-1.16,"effect":3.01},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":349,"role":"part","label":"Answer only","kind":"line","text":"Reply with only the ANSWER line. Do not show any working.","proposalId":202,"origin":"OPSIN's pick","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":228,"prediction":{"verdict":"INERT","p":0.55,"why":"Thinking is already off; little change expected"},"verdict":{"id":294,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","effect":1.39,"lo":-3.47,"hi":6.37,"n":432,"costRatio":0.296,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":4.98,"lo":-2.08,"verdict":"INERT"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":6.48,"lo":-0.46,"effect":3.01},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":350,"role":"part","label":"Bull and bear debate","kind":"line","text":"Before you decide, write the strongest case for long and the strongest case for short, then decide between them.","proposalId":203,"origin":"OPSIN's pick","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":209,"prediction":{"verdict":"INERT","p":0.5,"why":"Debate reshuffles the same priors, no new information"},"verdict":{"id":295,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","effect":-3.01,"lo":-8.45,"hi":2.31,"n":432,"costRatio":1.468,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":0.93,"lo":-6.94,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":3.24,"lo":-6.02,"effect":-1.39},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":351,"role":"part","label":"A risk manager signs off","kind":"line","text":"Before you finish, act as the risk manager who must approve this trade: say what would make it wrong, then confirm or change the call.","proposalId":204,"origin":"OPSIN's pick","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":221,"prediction":{"verdict":"INERT","p":0.45,"why":"Risk sign-off may shift toward caution, small accuracy effect"},"verdict":{"id":296,"verdict":"INERT","effect":-0.23,"lo":-4.98,"hi":4.51,"n":432,"costRatio":1.665,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":3.36,"lo":-3.7,"verdict":"INERT"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":5.32,"lo":-2.55,"effect":1.39},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":352,"role":"part","label":"World-class quant","kind":"line","text":"You are a world-class quantitative trader with an exceptional record.","proposalId":205,"origin":"OPSIN's pick","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":221,"prediction":{"verdict":"INERT","p":0.6,"why":"Persona prompts seldom improve forecasting accuracy"},"verdict":{"id":297,"verdict":"INERT","effect":-0.23,"lo":-4.63,"hi":4.28,"n":432,"costRatio":1.077,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":3.01,"lo":-3.36,"verdict":"INERT"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":4.86,"lo":-1.85,"effect":1.39},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":353,"role":"part","label":"Only short when longs pay","kind":"line","text":"Only short when longs are paying funding. Otherwise go long.","proposalId":206,"origin":"OPSIN's pick","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":223,"prediction":{"verdict":"INERT","p":0.4,"why":"Long bias could help or hurt depending on the market regime"},"verdict":{"id":298,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","effect":0.23,"lo":-6.13,"hi":6.71,"n":432,"costRatio":0.693,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":4.98,"lo":-4.4,"verdict":"INERT"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":6.94,"lo":-3.01,"effect":1.85},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}}]}