Propose a part

Notebook #092 · published

DeFi maths, Sonnet 5.5 with thinking on

Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole token for bonding-curve buys). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 144 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 93.8% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 4 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

3 parts are not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 1 of 3 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 10% on average; a guess gives 25%.

Preregistered
sha256 8e58f8af2d7d4f1432e88a8abebe7dd862d6f7d3c355957ab0361b7632fa5001
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,625,982
seed drand:6625982:bb5503da4230e5fe20830d3849f4b1a412cfec65df5997e88c4ef6b8dd8b998b
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Every run
Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0x1a7cbc3e4ed6efaef96678d885a34240a198fbb55dbe7d20d5ec9383e69fbd2f
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 564
    INERT +0.0−4.2 to +4.2
  2. PlaceboThis message was typed on a standard keyboard.signed verdict 565
    UNRESOLVED +0.7−4.2 to +5.6 ×1.04
  3. Answer onlyline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.40 · foresight INERT 57%, EXCITES 18%, UNRESOLVED 16% · against the placebo −1.4signed verdict 566
    UNRESOLVED −0.7−6.3 to +4.5 ×0.74
  4. Verify by inverseline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.45 · foresight INERT 67%, EXCITES 17% · against the placebo +2.8signed verdict 567
    UNRESOLVED +3.5−1.7 to +8.7 ×1.55
  5. Decompose and verify productsline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.45 · foresight INERT 68%, EXCITES 17% · against the placebo +3.5signed verdict 568
    UNRESOLVED +4.2−0.3 to +9.0 ×1.70