Propose a part

Notebook #086 · published

DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole token for bonding-curve buys). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 61.5% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 4 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

Recompute final step helped. Show every step hurt. 1 part is not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 1 of 3 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 27% on average; a guess gives 25%.

Preregistered
sha256 f9eb5553a0186129a186403e7e58da6d7562ba8a94b42320a6ba37e07e47cad8
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,625,283
seed drand:6625283:f2e228ad48c2d7e98a128ba35d1d847b1270e901cf4e9172ef5da5605472593a
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Every run
Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0x59d14d5c9e2ee3fe585cdda54b4389249598614f99e4ca0b0af91c26597211c4
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 524
    INERT +0.2−4.2 to +4.4
  2. PlaceboThe weather outside is mild today.signed verdict 525
    UNRESOLVED −1.7−6.7 to +3.4 ×0.95
  3. Show every stepline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.45 · foresight UNRESOLVED 50%, EXCITES 25%, INHIBITS 18% · against the placebo −4.9signed verdict 526
    INHIBITS −6.6−11.7 to −1.4 ×1.10
  4. Keep full precisionline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.45 · foresight UNRESOLVED 50%, EXCITES 25%, INHIBITS 18% · against the placebo +5.3signed verdict 527
    UNRESOLVED +3.6−1.4 to +8.7 ×1.14
  5. Recompute final stepline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.50 · foresight UNRESOLVED 53%, EXCITES 23%, INHIBITS 16% · against the placebo +7.6signed verdict 528
    EXCITES +5.9+1.5 to +10.4 ×1.27