Propose a part

Notebook #084 · published

DeFi maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole token for bonding-curve buys). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 57.9% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 3 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

Verify exact arithmetic and High-precision exp and division helped. OPSIN called 1 of 2 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 67% on average; a guess gives 25%.

Preregistered
sha256 dd1f2b1b98eb9138629198e22c2586a111e5cd09262b731d660c8ebb17e96c69
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,625,076
seed drand:6625076:526c4421cc3be988be7ae67ca4fe7a946e3f96c3ecd5b9ffe599f4cfa36f9836
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Every run
Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0x541b934cb3a8e9c8f873667ab2517a9bc495c0362f39ac0fcd15df0f6aca423a
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 512
    INERT −0.9−4.9 to +3.0
  2. PlaceboThe office plants were watered this morning.signed verdict 513
    INERT −0.2−4.8 to +4.3 ×0.98
  3. Verify exact arithmeticline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.55 · foresight EXCITES 71%, UNRESOLVED 27% · re-measures verdict 505 (EXCITES +15.1): it held · against the placebo +14.1signed verdict 514
    EXCITES +13.9+9.5 to +18.5 ×1.66
  4. High-precision exp and divisionline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.45 · foresight EXCITES 64%, UNRESOLVED 35% · re-measures verdict 506 (EXCITES +10.4): it held · against the placebo +8.1signed verdict 515
    EXCITES +7.9+3.2 to +12.5 ×1.45