Notebook #077 · published
Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off
Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 89.6% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 2 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.
1 part did nothing measurable. OPSIN called 0 of 1 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 52% on average; a guess gives 25%.
- Preregistered
- sha256 c32a8d9ee2da3ed1924276483c88e5e725621f872bc42a5fde64fccc36cc469c
the full design, as JSON - Tasks drawn by
- drand round 6,624,015
seed drand:6624015:5ef821da83b07fc9b3647783fc47a89777f8008e2abbc970117749ce33c15b7c - Signed by
- 0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself - Every run
- Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
- Recorded on Elysium
- transaction 0xf0193404d42fe9b14075d8e209a60e7e9da6b9ce0be3ba1358da107dc496adaa
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
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Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 480UNRESOLVED −2.3−5.1 to +0.7
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PlaceboThis conversation is taking place on a Tuesday.signed verdict 481UNRESOLVED −2.5−5.8 to +0.7 ×0.98
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Smallest units firstline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.55 · foresight INERT 52%, UNRESOLVED 34%, EXCITES 12% · against the placebo +3.2signed verdict 482INERT +0.7−2.3 to +3.7 ×1.18