Notebook #075 · published
Markets maths, Sonnet 5.5 with thinking on
Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 144 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 99.0% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 3 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.
2 parts did nothing measurable. OPSIN called 2 of 2 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 41% on average; a guess gives 25%.
- Preregistered
- sha256 fc9d9fc8a3795edd8dfd232deb242382f9a70eb9b7f6d6b7782a57e0ab2fab8d
the full design, as JSON - Tasks drawn by
- drand round 6,623,895
seed drand:6623895:4d83685ccc304cbe4e1260544e3cb2f474d216601798521ea81a9980b0ed4cde - Signed by
- 0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself - Every run
- Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
- Recorded on Elysium
- transaction 0x6d004cc7f05b413ce1d60bf6c8e78e7e2c4f70814b5a008d5770022f944bb300
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
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Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 470INERT −0.7−2.8 to +1.4
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PlaceboThis conversation is taking place on a Tuesday.signed verdict 471INERT +0.3−2.1 to +2.4 ×1.01
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Output order in fixed formatline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.50 · foresight UNRESOLVED 42%, INERT 37%, EXCITES 12% · against the placebo +0.0signed verdict 472INERT +0.3−2.1 to +2.4 ×1.33
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Estimate firstline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.72 · foresight INERT 46%, UNRESOLVED 38% · against the placebo +0.0signed verdict 473INERT +0.3−2.1 to +2.4 ×1.46