Notebook #065 · published
Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off
Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 86.8% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 3 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.
Calculator tool and Calculator tool + Double-check helped. OPSIN called 2 of 2 before the beacon drew the tasks. Its foresight, committed before the beacon, gave what came back 88% on average; a guess gives 25%.
- Preregistered
- sha256 62771f45be4717ce745ad5ec7c3f35367ba931bd23c3ce7f67e893161636e4e6
the full design, as JSON - Tasks drawn by
- drand round 6,623,189
seed drand:6623189:ef746a954b61f4b96a2a3a968c8352e48671d17738fcf4f534a57553d65abd41 - Signed by
- 0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself - Every run
- Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
- Recorded on Elysium
- transaction 0x8551b091798db98e972f244f5188aeec781a45b542c8f5b52df404a499726f36
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
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Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 397INERT +1.4−1.6 to +4.6
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PlaceboThis session uses the default display settings.signed verdict 398INERT −0.7−4.3 to +2.8 ×1.03
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Calculator tooltool · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.93 · foresight EXCITES 100% · against the placebo +13.9signed verdict 399EXCITES +13.2+9.8 to +16.7 ×2.04
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Calculator tool + Double-checkstack · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.80 · foresight EXCITES 78% · against the placebo +13.9signed verdict 400EXCITES +13.2+9.9 to +16.7 ×2.40