Notebook #060 · published
Markets maths, Sonnet 5.5 with thinking on
Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 144 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 98.6% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 3 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.
2 parts did nothing measurable. OPSIN called 1 of 2 before the beacon drew the tasks.
- Preregistered
- sha256 dc6fb52760b8f3e071a152396a88cff513034c82c2b2de4a68221253d2a62de0
the full design, as JSON - Tasks drawn by
- drand round 6,622,305
seed drand:6622305:2dc7f8f62df06f33e079ace67d8850388343fc6a2bef82dae8bf1c5c0560c1c3 - Signed by
- 0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself - Every run
- Each run of every arm, with its task’s family and whether it was exact: CSV or JSON. With the seed, every verdict above can be recomputed from them.
- Recorded on Elysium
- transaction 0x1ff5574d65de7994300f905bf8067faea504bc7161404dab8b7ac54e7b9ac31f
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
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Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 378INERT +0.0+0.0 to +0.0
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PlaceboThis conversation is taking place on a Tuesday.signed verdict 379INERT −0.7−2.8 to +0.0 ×0.98
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Answer onlyline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.40 · against the placebo +2.1signed verdict 380INERT +1.4+0.0 to +4.2 ×0.69
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Double-checkline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.45 · against the placebo +2.1signed verdict 381INERT +1.4+0.0 to +4.2 ×1.37