Propose a part

Notebook #056 · published

Market calls, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the call was on the right side of what the market really did over the next 24 hours, on moves of at least 1%; a coin flip scores 50%. Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 51.0% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 7 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

1 part did nothing measurable. 5 parts are not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 3 of 6 before the beacon drew the tasks.

Preregistered
sha256 65853c1242aca48a927b8bf2cdd39ed2f87a89618f4a9a6a91cab00013b68cb4
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,621,502
seed drand:6621502:974e28ae9b5c114504bbd9b39c86981b249363056bc7e44eb3c46339d2b85298
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0xb37c864139ec56a21e123deee72c962761698e76f8741178a7039a54bbc5d92d
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 348
    UNRESOLVED −2.1−5.8 to +1.9
  2. PlaceboThis message was typed on a standard keyboard.signed verdict 349
    UNRESOLVED −1.3−5.8 to +3.2 ×0.98
  3. Be conciseline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.50 · against the placebo +0.2signed verdict 350
    UNRESOLVED −1.0−5.3 to +3.1 ×0.90
  4. gm serline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.50 · against the placebo −2.3signed verdict 351
    UNRESOLVED −3.6−8.2 to +1.0 ×0.97
  5. Frozen strategy on unseen dataline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.40 · against the placebo −2.3signed verdict 352
    UNRESOLVED −3.6−8.2 to +1.0 ×1.07
  6. Spotlight the dataline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.45 · against the placebo +2.1signed verdict 353
    UNRESOLVED +0.8−3.6 to +5.3 ×1.04
  7. Cautious risk managerline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.40 · against the placebo +0.0signed verdict 354
    UNRESOLVED −1.3−6.3 to +3.8 ×1.07
  8. Speed is everythingline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.45 · against the placebo +1.4signed verdict 355
    INERT +0.1−4.3 to +4.4 ×1.00