Notebook #055 · published
Market calls, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off
Exact means the call was on the right side of what the market really did over the next 24 hours, on moves of at least 1%; a coin flip scores 50%. Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 50.2% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 3 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.
1 part did nothing measurable. 1 part is not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 1 of 2 before the beacon drew the tasks.
- Preregistered
- sha256 40329ec18c2b255abc4fc31f101e5c303c964935b41027b15da7c2225be55f41
the full design, as JSON - Tasks drawn by
- drand round 6,621,409
seed drand:6621409:de89e13f163971eac0403c7fd35212aebd9f343e89b3a42f6299ea54404de5e4 - Signed by
- 0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself - Recorded on Elysium
- transaction 0xfa1df598ec4a6a9b856d3288d470120ab7efdd2ba5460a25a42e0eddd8e886a9
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
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Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 344UNRESOLVED −1.9−5.3 to +1.6
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PlaceboThis session uses the default display settings.signed verdict 345INERT +0.9−2.8 to +4.6 ×1.03
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Frozen strategy on unseen dataline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.45 · against the placebo +0.9signed verdict 346UNRESOLVED +1.9−2.5 to +6.3 ×1.07
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Cap risk per tradeline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.50 · against the placebo −0.7signed verdict 347INERT +0.2−3.6 to +3.9 ×1.21