Propose a part

Notebook #053 · published

Market calls, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the call was on the right side of what the market really did over the next 24 hours, on moves of at least 1%; a coin flip scores 50%. Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 53.1% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 7 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

1 part did nothing measurable. 5 parts are not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 1 of 6 before the beacon drew the tasks.

Preregistered
sha256 35096227b7b46398113aee8c3df314cecfe4c541f9fdf6ada142f61f8bc36631
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,619,681
seed drand:6619681:e77daa922d5182be84a39274b940c9952e90ad9d79f901ba37e1e1734b3fbaed
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0x53b31f7e20105b18995a0338b8bb10607212482efbd2c2c43c6a2bf7c184f708
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 328
    UNRESOLVED +2.1−1.6 to +5.8
  2. PlaceboThe office plants were watered this morning.signed verdict 329
    UNRESOLVED +1.7−2.4 to +5.9 ×0.95
  3. Units on every amountline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.60 · against the placebo −3.2signed verdict 330
    UNRESOLVED −1.5−6.5 to +3.6 ×1.35
  4. Wallet on the lineline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.40 · against the placebo −2.1signed verdict 331
    INERT −0.3−4.8 to +4.0 ×1.08
  5. Ignore embedded instructionsline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.65 · against the placebo −0.5signed verdict 332
    UNRESOLVED +1.3−3.2 to +5.9 ×1.07
  6. Only the first message rulesline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.60 · against the placebo −3.0signed verdict 333
    UNRESOLVED −1.3−5.6 to +3.1 ×0.96
  7. Solve it two waysline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted UNRESOLVED at 0.45 · against the placebo −3.5signed verdict 334
    UNRESOLVED −1.7−7.4 to +4.0 ×1.37
  8. Six significant figuresline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.65 · against the placebo −2.8signed verdict 335
    UNRESOLVED −1.0−6.1 to +4.0 ×1.37