Propose a part

Notebook #051 · published

Market calls, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the call was on the right side of what the market really did over the next 24 hours, on moves of at least 1%; a coin flip scores 50%. Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 54.6% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 7 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

2 parts did nothing measurable. 4 parts are not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 2 of 6 before the beacon drew the tasks.

Preregistered
sha256 d3b1fe75673377e19ec68e8abc1a463dfc303392ff8603d45d5cd25a09d4b148
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,618,981
seed drand:6618981:a2c9c4026d6ffd5954adc632f20e11d57584908bd1fb7a8ac69c18df754d632e
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0xd143f3e17a4e241467eaa136dcbced7aad8c8c700e270dce39b43fedb90915f1
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 315
    UNRESOLVED +1.9−1.6 to +5.3
  2. PlaceboThe office plants were watered this morning.signed verdict 316
    INERT −0.5−4.9 to +3.9 ×0.96
  3. Shouted warningline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.60 · against the placebo +0.0signed verdict 317
    INERT −0.5−4.6 to +3.8 ×1.01
  4. Take a deep breathline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.62 · against the placebo +1.2signed verdict 318
    UNRESOLVED +0.7−4.2 to +5.7 ×1.51
  5. Important to my careerline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.60 · against the placebo −0.7signed verdict 319
    UNRESOLVED −1.2−5.7 to +3.4 ×1.00
  6. A penalty threatline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.58 · against the placebo +1.4signed verdict 320
    INERT +0.9−3.1 to +5.0 ×1.12
  7. Read the question againline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.62 · against the placebo −0.2signed verdict 321
    UNRESOLVED −0.7−5.4 to +3.9 ×1.13
  8. Units on every amountline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.62 · against the placebo −1.4signed verdict 322
    UNRESOLVED −1.9−6.3 to +2.4 ×1.34