Propose a part

Notebook #050 · published

Market calls, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the call was on the right side of what the market really did over the next 24 hours, on moves of at least 1%; a coin flip scores 50%. Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 50.9% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 7 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

1 part did nothing measurable. 5 parts are not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 1 of 6 before the beacon drew the tasks.

Preregistered
sha256 b0e6ad002bcba8a8e214785778d6173f891f019197de71c9a82f73623d7c2ce1
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,618,849
seed drand:6618849:d83d82690fb4d1d4e475c9b39eaf6d5a06b2d3e09e182b741319827f62474ce5
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
Recorded on Elysium
transaction 0x11e0a608a5a8826c7768a46f2e576f8985b88b15bf90f5e039681f7c957c46fb
Written once, by the lab, and nothing can change it. The contract
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 307
    INERT +1.4−1.9 to +4.9
  2. PlaceboThis session uses the default display settings.signed verdict 308
    UNRESOLVED +2.8−1.7 to +7.2 ×1.02
  3. Trust user notes anywhereline · OPSIN's replication · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.50 · against the placebo −3.0signed verdict 309
    INERT −0.2−4.9 to +4.2 ×1.02
  4. Shouted warningline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.55 · against the placebo −3.2signed verdict 310
    UNRESOLVED −0.5−5.3 to +4.3 ×1.02
  5. Take a deep breathline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.58 · against the placebo −0.7signed verdict 311
    UNRESOLVED +2.1−2.5 to +6.7 ×1.51
  6. Important to my careerline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.57 · against the placebo −1.4signed verdict 312
    UNRESOLVED +1.4−2.8 to +5.7 ×0.99
  7. A penalty threatline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.50 · against the placebo −0.5signed verdict 313
    UNRESOLVED +2.3−2.2 to +6.7 ×1.10
  8. Read the question againline · OPSIN's follow-up · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.58 · against the placebo −3.2signed verdict 314
    UNRESOLVED −0.5−5.1 to +4.0 ×1.13