Propose a part

Notebook #038 · published

Markets maths, Haiku 5.5 with thinking off

Exact means the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages). Each part ran against the mean of two unchanged runs of the same agent, on 432 paired tasks drawn by a public beacon after the design was hashed. The unchanged agent was exact on 88.3% of them. Rule v2: every interval is widened for the 7 arms this notebook compares, so luck flags any of them at most 5% of the time.

Calculator tool, Thinking on and Double-check helped. Answer only hurt. 1 part did nothing measurable. 1 part is not proven either way yet. OPSIN called 4 of 6 before the beacon drew the tasks.

Preregistered
sha256 4b2447938384a02533872175bb476600fe8efbe0b83ae80abd63a249bf8f53b3
the full design, as JSON
Tasks drawn by
drand round 6,616,877
seed drand:6616877:03dd6b7c0514f46e830ae5389a4a45326d0d022f10c70c9ee47ca65062577619
Signed by
0xFf8E1E8ebF21064Ef781B75CdC8DFbd969399EbD
EIP-191 over sha256 of each verdict’s canonical JSON. Verify one yourself
  1. Control check (A/A)the unchanged agent against itselfsigned verdict 218
    INERT −1.2−4.2 to +1.9
  2. PlaceboThis message was typed on a standard keyboard.signed verdict 219
    UNRESOLVED −3.1−7.3 to +0.8 ×0.99
  3. Calculator tooltool · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.55 · stopped early at 96 · provisional: stopped early, confirmed only at full size · against the placebo +14.6signed verdict 220
    EXCITES +12.0+4.7 to +20.3 ×1.99
  4. Thinking onsetting · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted EXCITES at 0.65 · against the placebo +11.8signed verdict 221
    EXCITES +8.7+5.2 to +12.3 ×1.66
  5. Double-checkline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.50 · against the placebo +10.2signed verdict 222
    EXCITES +7.1+3.1 to +11.0 ×1.45
  6. Answer onlyline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INHIBITS at 0.40 · stopped early at 48 · provisional: stopped early, confirmed only at full size · against the placebo −43.8signed verdict 223
    INHIBITS −43.8−63.5 to −24.0 ×0.43
  7. Shoutingline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.70 · against the placebo +7.2signed verdict 224
    UNRESOLVED +4.0+0.0 to +8.2 ×1.15
  8. Think step by stepline · OPSIN's pick · OPSIN predicted INERT at 0.40 · against the placebo +3.5signed verdict 225
    INERT +0.3−3.8 to +4.5 ×1.10