{"id":88,"notebook":89,"tag":"#089","status":"published","suite":"coding","suiteTitle":"Coding","exactMeans":"the function returned the right answer on every hidden case","base":{"model":"claude-haiku-5-5","thinking":"off"},"pairsDone":432,"maxPairs":432,"beaconRound":6625727,"beaconAt":"2026-11-09T05:40:30.000Z","beacon":{"chain":"8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce","round":6625727,"signature":"93baa768a086b8a95465f346e059fd6c2518959c392069b4e611f2043cf8eee655bbb09457c8239229f03724ce2bd7de149bee786e41f90e4fa83c15617e2da45a56f6fa4cf5a7fbe98fa101be7b933e1ebbf6184ed2a437540a094aec66151f","randomness":"79c7dd2b55aeedf56a5a32b7682805282be2b9a726f85878f4684463f44f627c","publishedAt":"2026-11-09T05:40:30.000Z"},"seed":"drand:6625727:79c7dd2b55aeedf56a5a32b7682805282be2b9a726f85878f4684463f44f627c","preregHash":"aae197ed3800bc2d6e072fc74b9554cf0b98c456f8472edad85674a5f7d07548","prereg":{"lab":"OPSIN","arms":[{"role":"control-a","fingerprint":"7772fae351628ad523888a8a8405154f10eedab329a516a8e28d417470782cb7"},{"role":"control-b","fingerprint":"7772fae351628ad523888a8a8405154f10eedab329a516a8e28d417470782cb7"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"This message was typed on a standard keyboard."},"role":"placebo","fingerprint":"101693ca64232190151d7edc3e2b0bb4b43e3db04f7d7cd4103d34fd0e5957ef"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"Before using a past note, check it applies to this task. If not, ignore it."},"role":"part","label":"Check past notes apply before use","proposal":373,"fingerprint":"0f1f8ce0b711469d3d6740f28555bdae61392132161a216f8c460f9966203a94"}],"base":{"model":"claude-haiku-5-5","thinking":"off"},"kind":"cycle","rule":{"cost":"each part's cost over the controls' mean, both at list prices: a batched run was paid half, so it is doubled","INERT":"adjusted interval entirely inside ±5 points","errors":"a task with an errored run in any compared arm is left out of that comparison","metric":"exact: the function returned the right answer on every hidden case","EXCITES":"adjusted interval entirely above 0","control":"each part against the per-task mean of two unchanged runs of the base agent","interim":"before the last look, a part stops early only if |z| ≥ 3.29; INERT is decided at the last look only; a part that stops early with EXCITES or INHIBITS is provisional until a later notebook confirms it at full size","placebo":"a neutral line chosen by the beacon round's number from a fixed public list","version":2,"INHIBITS":"adjusted interval entirely below 0","interval":"percentile bootstrap over tasks, 20,000 resamples, seeded from the beacon seed and the proposal id, at 1 − 0.05/2: 2 arms (the parts and the placebo) are compared with the controls, so the chance that any arm of this notebook flags by luck stays at or under 5%","UNRESOLVED":"anything else","confirmations":"an arm that re-measures an earlier early stop never stops early","versusPlacebo":"each part is also compared with the placebo on the same tasks, 95% interval, reported beside its verdict"},"looks":[48,96,192,432],"suite":{"id":"coding","version":"tasks-1","exactMeans":"the function returned the right answer on every hidden case"},"beacon":{"rule":"first drand round at least 600 seconds after this preregistration","chain":"8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce","round":6625727},"prices":"2026-11-04","version":2,"maxPairs":432,"foresight":{"arms":[{"basis":"new","rates":{"INERT":0.6725,"EXCITES":0.1662,"INHIBITS":0.0507,"UNRESOLVED":0.1105},"record":{"INERT":0.7278,"EXCITES":0.1908,"INHIBITS":0.0611,"UNRESOLVED":0.0204},"chances":{"INERT":0.753,"EXCITES":0.1473,"INHIBITS":0.063,"UNRESOLVED":0.0366},"measured":0,"proposal":373}],"version":2,"weights":{"new":[0.35,0.65,0],"stack":[0.33,0.33,0.33],"measured":[0,1,0]}},"predictor":2,"writtenAt":"2026-11-09T05:30:04.064Z","predictedBy":"claude-sonnet-5-5","predictions":[{"p":0.8,"why":"Base at 94%, ceiling; a prompt line about notes rarely moves exact rate.","effect":0,"verdict":"INERT","proposal":373}]},"createdAt":"2026-11-09T05:30:05.118Z","publishedAt":"2026-11-09T05:54:58.038Z","error":null,"controlsTripped":false,"baseExact":0.9271,"arms":[{"id":640,"role":"control-a","label":"Control A","kind":"control-a","text":null,"proposalId":null,"origin":null,"stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":400,"prediction":null,"foresight":null,"verdict":null},{"id":641,"role":"control-b","label":"Control B","kind":"control-b","text":null,"proposalId":null,"origin":null,"stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":401,"prediction":null,"foresight":null,"verdict":{"id":545,"verdict":"INERT","effect":0.23,"lo":-2.08,"hi":2.55,"n":432,"costRatio":null,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":null,"raw95":null,"vsPlacebo":null,"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":642,"role":"placebo","label":"Placebo","kind":"placebo","text":"This message was typed on a standard keyboard.","proposalId":null,"origin":null,"stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":397,"prediction":null,"foresight":null,"verdict":{"id":546,"verdict":"INERT","effect":-0.81,"lo":-3.24,"hi":1.5,"n":432,"costRatio":0.999,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.975,"raw95":{"hi":1.27,"lo":-2.89,"verdict":"INERT"},"vsPlacebo":null,"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":643,"role":"part","label":"Check past notes apply before use","kind":"line","text":"Before using a past note, check it applies to this task. If not, ignore it.","proposalId":373,"origin":"OPSIN's pick","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":395,"prediction":{"verdict":"INERT","p":0.8,"why":"Base at 94%, ceiling; a prompt line about notes rarely moves exact rate."},"foresight":{"basis":"new","measured":0,"chances":{"INERT":0.753,"EXCITES":0.1473,"INHIBITS":0.063,"UNRESOLVED":0.0366}},"verdict":{"id":547,"verdict":"INERT","effect":-1.27,"lo":-3.94,"hi":1.27,"n":432,"costRatio":0.998,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.975,"raw95":{"hi":0.93,"lo":-3.59,"verdict":"INERT"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":2.08,"lo":-3.01,"effect":-0.46},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}}]}