{"id":66,"notebook":67,"tag":"#067","status":"published","suite":"markets-maths","suiteTitle":"Markets maths","exactMeans":"the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages)","base":{"model":"claude-haiku-5-5","thinking":"off"},"pairsDone":432,"maxPairs":432,"beaconRound":6623353,"beaconAt":"2026-11-08T09:53:30.000Z","beacon":{"chain":"8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce","round":6623353,"signature":"a4e570cc001c617e717cfe247bd4013eaf594e87d8ee24fd967dc53f4c5fef27384f3114f7702495598504428e23ada40a7c98747becabddd118828fe60b85b23228338df2fe3587fab6ea2b63c5082bb4f0e7ded777ddd4bb1679c9dcb411d4","randomness":"363fefceb129321d24d617c5bfafce23cec971285c9e749667a43ebb5e93581c","publishedAt":"2026-11-08T09:53:30.000Z"},"seed":"drand:6623353:363fefceb129321d24d617c5bfafce23cec971285c9e749667a43ebb5e93581c","preregHash":"0738bd2315162530f355d1cedca7ddd87c6a7380e34734486d14bdeecc6aa1e8","prereg":{"lab":"OPSIN","arms":[{"role":"control-a","fingerprint":"e8196002f86b48c858d44d742c91d318bb7ccf07b48ab8136a10261c7e23c4bc"},{"role":"control-b","fingerprint":"e8196002f86b48c858d44d742c91d318bb7ccf07b48ab8136a10261c7e23c4bc"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"The weather outside is mild today."},"role":"placebo","fingerprint":"2301ae538958a907ae3238279461242dab402572f726941a5a96d423f314442a"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"Take a deep breath and work on this problem step-by-step."},"role":"part","label":"Take a deep breath","proposal":281,"fingerprint":"96179517c84e05dfa2d6ce0b2a84a2222e978dbdb2b84ffa65e1ffce6a3d1a21"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"This is very important to my career."},"role":"part","label":"Important to my career","proposal":282,"fingerprint":"4bf54a9ea4fd8a83705e7179fc73163f5ad13f3fecd12e3ddae0cf11ecff0bcd"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"You will be penalized if you get this wrong."},"role":"part","label":"A penalty threat","proposal":283,"fingerprint":"3d9169d06ac6a369c8c2d17f51508dda34f6597acda3c363270d92e83c0f2ac5"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"Read the question again before you answer."},"role":"part","label":"Read the question again","proposal":284,"fingerprint":"87f738de8ae0ca7233faef8cec2a3eb1c353b3df873ea4918f391cb0bbead39b"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"Write every amount with its unit before you compute anything."},"role":"part","label":"Units on every amount","proposal":285,"fingerprint":"4db25a8c909ca5364ed570869a3d8fbd718281048fcee6138f57acd266176f8d"},{"part":{"kind":"line","text":"Do every multiplication in small steps (split one factor into thousands, hundreds, tens and units), add the partial results, then re-check each product by a different route before using it."},"role":"part","label":"Decompose and verify products","proposal":286,"fingerprint":"e731507e94bc829214c957941cd86f95047307136cafd1d5d7539a571b2e3495"}],"base":{"model":"claude-haiku-5-5","thinking":"off"},"kind":"cycle","rule":{"cost":"each part's cost over the controls' mean, both at list prices: a batched run was paid half, so it is doubled","INERT":"adjusted interval entirely inside ±5 points","errors":"a task with an errored run in any compared arm is left out of that comparison","metric":"exact: the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages)","EXCITES":"adjusted interval entirely above 0","control":"each part against the per-task mean of two unchanged runs of the base agent","interim":"before the last look, a part stops early only if |z| ≥ 3.29; INERT is decided at the last look only; a part that stops early with EXCITES or INHIBITS is provisional until a later notebook confirms it at full size","placebo":"a neutral line chosen by the beacon round's number from a fixed public list","version":2,"INHIBITS":"adjusted interval entirely below 0","interval":"percentile bootstrap over tasks, 20,000 resamples, seeded from the beacon seed and the proposal id, at 1 − 0.05/7: 7 arms (the parts and the placebo) are compared with the controls, so the chance that any arm of this notebook flags by luck stays at or under 5%","UNRESOLVED":"anything else","confirmations":"an arm that re-measures an earlier early stop never stops early","versusPlacebo":"each part is also compared with the placebo on the same tasks, 95% interval, reported beside its verdict"},"looks":[48,96,192,432],"suite":{"id":"markets-maths","version":"tasks-1","exactMeans":"the final number is right to the cent (to the whole share for position sizes, to a hundredth of a point for percentages)"},"beacon":{"rule":"first drand round at least 600 seconds after this preregistration","chain":"8990e7a9aaed2ffed73dbd7092123d6f289930540d7651336225dc172e51b2ce","round":6623353},"prices":"2026-11-04","version":2,"maxPairs":432,"foresight":{"arms":[{"basis":"measured","rates":{"INERT":0.0826,"EXCITES":0.5603,"INHIBITS":0.1438,"UNRESOLVED":0.2132},"record":{"INERT":0.2195,"EXCITES":0.1925,"INHIBITS":0.0019,"UNRESOLVED":0.5861},"chances":{"INERT":0.2195,"EXCITES":0.1925,"INHIBITS":0.0019,"UNRESOLVED":0.5861},"measured":1,"proposal":281},{"basis":"measured","rates":{"INERT":0.0826,"EXCITES":0.5603,"INHIBITS":0.1438,"UNRESOLVED":0.2132},"record":{"INERT":0.1988,"EXCITES":0.2223,"INHIBITS":0.0004,"UNRESOLVED":0.5786},"chances":{"INERT":0.1988,"EXCITES":0.2223,"INHIBITS":0.0004,"UNRESOLVED":0.5785},"measured":1,"proposal":282},{"basis":"measured","rates":{"INERT":0.0826,"EXCITES":0.5603,"INHIBITS":0.1438,"UNRESOLVED":0.2132},"record":{"INERT":0.0209,"EXCITES":0.6695,"INHIBITS":0.0001,"UNRESOLVED":0.3095},"chances":{"INERT":0.0209,"EXCITES":0.6695,"INHIBITS":0.0001,"UNRESOLVED":0.3095},"measured":1,"proposal":283},{"basis":"measured","rates":{"INERT":0.0826,"EXCITES":0.5603,"INHIBITS":0.1438,"UNRESOLVED":0.2132},"record":{"INERT":0.0164,"EXCITES":0.6955,"INHIBITS":0.0001,"UNRESOLVED":0.288},"chances":{"INERT":0.0164,"EXCITES":0.6955,"INHIBITS":0.0001,"UNRESOLVED":0.288},"measured":1,"proposal":284},{"basis":"measured","rates":{"INERT":0.0826,"EXCITES":0.5603,"INHIBITS":0.1438,"UNRESOLVED":0.2132},"record":{"INERT":0.3197,"EXCITES":0.0076,"INHIBITS":0.0898,"UNRESOLVED":0.5828},"chances":{"INERT":0.3197,"EXCITES":0.0076,"INHIBITS":0.0898,"UNRESOLVED":0.5829},"measured":1,"proposal":285},{"basis":"new","rates":{"INERT":0.2089,"EXCITES":0.3992,"INHIBITS":0.0866,"UNRESOLVED":0.3054},"record":{"INERT":0.1233,"EXCITES":0.5081,"INHIBITS":0.0766,"UNRESOLVED":0.292},"chances":{"INERT":0.1657,"EXCITES":0.3672,"INHIBITS":0.1165,"UNRESOLVED":0.3506},"measured":0,"proposal":286}],"version":1,"weights":{"new":[0.35,0.4,0.25],"stack":[0.33,0.33,0.33],"measured":[0,1,0]}},"predictor":2,"writtenAt":"2026-11-08T09:43:29.771Z","predictedBy":"claude-sonnet-5-5","predictions":[{"p":0.55,"why":"Prior unresolved here; small positive across settings","effect":2,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","proposal":281},{"p":0.55,"why":"Mixed record, near zero; unresolved likely","effect":0,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","proposal":282},{"p":0.45,"why":"Excited here and in DeFi, but likely shrinks on retest","effect":3,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","proposal":283},{"p":0.45,"why":"Strong DeFi replication, excited here; shrinkage expected","effect":3.5,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","proposal":284},{"p":0.5,"why":"Consistently slightly negative, rarely conclusive","effect":-1.5,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","proposal":285},{"p":0.45,"why":"Unmeasured; plausible help on arithmetic but ceiling near 86%","effect":2,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","proposal":286}]},"createdAt":"2026-11-08T09:43:30.141Z","publishedAt":"2026-11-08T10:11:05.729Z","error":null,"controlsTripped":false,"baseExact":0.8715,"arms":[{"id":482,"role":"control-a","label":"Control A","kind":"control-a","text":null,"proposalId":null,"origin":null,"stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":378,"prediction":null,"foresight":null,"verdict":null},{"id":483,"role":"control-b","label":"Control B","kind":"control-b","text":null,"proposalId":null,"origin":null,"stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":375,"prediction":null,"foresight":null,"verdict":{"id":409,"verdict":"INERT","effect":-0.69,"lo":-3.47,"hi":2.08,"n":432,"costRatio":null,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":null,"raw95":null,"vsPlacebo":null,"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":484,"role":"placebo","label":"Placebo","kind":"placebo","text":"The weather outside is mild today.","proposalId":null,"origin":null,"stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":374,"prediction":null,"foresight":null,"verdict":{"id":410,"verdict":"INERT","effect":-0.58,"lo":-4.51,"hi":3.24,"n":432,"costRatio":0.967,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":2.2,"lo":-3.47,"verdict":"INERT"},"vsPlacebo":null,"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":485,"role":"part","label":"Take a deep breath","kind":"line","text":"Take a deep breath and work on this problem step-by-step.","proposalId":281,"origin":"OPSIN's replication","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":379,"prediction":{"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","p":0.55,"why":"Prior unresolved here; small positive across settings"},"foresight":{"basis":"measured","measured":1,"chances":{"INERT":0.2195,"EXCITES":0.1925,"INHIBITS":0.0019,"UNRESOLVED":0.5861}},"verdict":{"id":411,"verdict":"INERT","effect":0.58,"lo":-3.7,"hi":4.98,"n":432,"costRatio":1.146,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":3.82,"lo":-2.55,"verdict":"INERT"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":4.63,"lo":-2.31,"effect":1.16},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":486,"role":"part","label":"Important to my career","kind":"line","text":"This is very important to my career.","proposalId":282,"origin":"OPSIN's replication","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":378,"prediction":{"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","p":0.55,"why":"Mixed record, near zero; unresolved likely"},"foresight":{"basis":"measured","measured":1,"chances":{"INERT":0.1988,"EXCITES":0.2223,"INHIBITS":0.0004,"UNRESOLVED":0.5785}},"verdict":{"id":412,"verdict":"INERT","effect":0.35,"lo":-3.82,"hi":4.51,"n":432,"costRatio":1.056,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":3.24,"lo":-2.66,"verdict":"INERT"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":4.63,"lo":-2.78,"effect":0.93},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":487,"role":"part","label":"A penalty threat","kind":"line","text":"You will be penalized if you get this wrong.","proposalId":283,"origin":"OPSIN's replication","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":375,"prediction":{"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","p":0.45,"why":"Excited here and in DeFi, but likely shrinks on retest"},"foresight":{"basis":"measured","measured":1,"chances":{"INERT":0.0209,"EXCITES":0.6695,"INHIBITS":0.0001,"UNRESOLVED":0.3095}},"verdict":{"id":413,"verdict":"INERT","effect":-0.35,"lo":-4.17,"hi":3.36,"n":432,"costRatio":1.052,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":2.43,"lo":-3.01,"verdict":"INERT"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":3.7,"lo":-3.24,"effect":0.23},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":488,"role":"part","label":"Read the question again","kind":"line","text":"Read the question again before you answer.","proposalId":284,"origin":"OPSIN's replication","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":388,"prediction":{"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","p":0.45,"why":"Strong DeFi replication, excited here; shrinkage expected"},"foresight":{"basis":"measured","measured":1,"chances":{"INERT":0.0164,"EXCITES":0.6955,"INHIBITS":0.0001,"UNRESOLVED":0.288}},"verdict":{"id":414,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","effect":2.66,"lo":-1.16,"hi":6.6,"n":432,"costRatio":1.129,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":5.44,"lo":-0.12,"verdict":"UNRESOLVED"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":6.48,"lo":0.23,"effect":3.24},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":489,"role":"part","label":"Units on every amount","kind":"line","text":"Write every amount with its unit before you compute anything.","proposalId":285,"origin":"OPSIN's replication","stoppedAt":null,"done":432,"exact":355,"prediction":{"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","p":0.5,"why":"Consistently slightly negative, rarely conclusive"},"foresight":{"basis":"measured","measured":1,"chances":{"INERT":0.3197,"EXCITES":0.0076,"INHIBITS":0.0898,"UNRESOLVED":0.5829}},"verdict":{"id":415,"verdict":"INHIBITS","effect":-4.98,"lo":-9.37,"hi":-0.81,"n":432,"costRatio":1.251,"stoppedEarly":false,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":-1.97,"lo":-8.22,"verdict":"INHIBITS"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":432,"hi":-0.46,"lo":-8.33,"effect":-4.4},"provisional":false,"confirms":null,"stack":null}},{"id":490,"role":"part","label":"Decompose and verify products","kind":"line","text":"Do every multiplication in small steps (split one factor into thousands, hundreds, tens and units), add the partial results, then re-check each product by a different route before using it.","proposalId":286,"origin":"OPSIN's design, from the misses it read","stoppedAt":96,"done":96,"exact":95,"prediction":{"verdict":"UNRESOLVED","p":0.45,"why":"Unmeasured; plausible help on arithmetic but ceiling near 86%"},"foresight":{"basis":"new","measured":0,"chances":{"INERT":0.1657,"EXCITES":0.3672,"INHIBITS":0.1165,"UNRESOLVED":0.3506}},"verdict":{"id":416,"verdict":"EXCITES","effect":14.58,"lo":6.77,"hi":23.44,"n":96,"costRatio":2.035,"stoppedEarly":true,"safety":null,"rule":2,"level":0.992857,"raw95":{"hi":21.35,"lo":8.85,"verdict":"EXCITES"},"vsPlacebo":{"n":96,"hi":17.71,"lo":5.21,"effect":11.46},"provisional":true,"confirms":null,"stack":null}}]}